Title: Reliability prediction and testing plan based on an accelerated degradation rate model

Authors: H.T. Liao, E.A. Elsayed

Addresses: Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Rutgers University, 96 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854-8018, USA. ' Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Rutgers University, 96 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854-8018, USA

Abstract: Accelerated Degradation Testing (ADT) is a viable alternative to accelerated life testing with censoring to estimate reliability without waiting for actual failures to occur. However, the estimation accuracy relies greatly on both precise representation of covariates| impacts on degradation behaviour and a carefully designed ADT plan. In this paper, an ADT model, called Accelerated Geometric Brownian Motion Degradation Rate (AGBMDR) model, is proposed by modelling degradation rate in order to explain covariates| effects and inherent degradation rate variation precisely. Based on baseline parameter estimates of the model through a pilot ADT experiment, a local optimum ADT plan is developed to refine estimation accuracy of interests. The objective considered is to minimise the generalised variance (GV) of parameter estimates. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the reliability inference procedure and the optimum ADT design methodology. The result shows that the optimum ADT plan leads to a more efficient experiment than the traditional ADT plan in terms of relative efficiency criterion.

Keywords: accelerated degradation testing; degradation rate; geometric Brownian motion; optimum testing plan; reliability estimate; reliability testing; reliability prediction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMPT.2004.004998

International Journal of Materials and Product Technology, 2004 Vol.21 No.5, pp.402 - 422

Published online: 11 Aug 2004 *

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