Int. J. of Foresight and Innovation Policy   »   2012 Vol.8, No.4

 

 

Title: Anticipation of developments in industry sectors with future scenarios and creation of business models using a multi-stakeholder approach

 

Authors: Volker Grienitz; André-Marcel Schmidt

 

Addresses:
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Siegen, Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11, Siegen 57068, Germany
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Siegen, Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11, Siegen 57068, Germany

 

Abstract: This paper describes an approach to create future scenarios, on the one hand, and corresponding business models for a selected industry sector, on the other hand. At first global environment scenarios are developed. In the next step, special branch scenarios are developed. The last step is to develop consistent business models. The results are authoritative business models that will fit special environment scenarios. The paper shows an example of a branch study as a forecast for the automotive supplier industry in South Westphalia and closes with current experiences with this approach: crucial success factors as well as respective pitfalls.

 

Keywords: scenario techniques; business models; supplier industry; environment scenarios; multi-stakeholder environments; future scenarios; global environment; special branch scenarios; consistent models; authoritative models; automobile industry; automotive supplies; South Westphalia; success factors; pitfalls; Germany; foresight; forecasting; innovation policies; new trajectories.

 

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2012.049778

 

Int. J. of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2012 Vol.8, No.4, pp.335 - 353

 

Available online: 15 Oct 2012

 

 

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