Article: Technology foresight and critical technology selection in China Journal: International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP) 2004 Vol.1 No.1/2 pp.168 - 180 Abstract: A Delphi survey in the three fields of information and communication, life science and biotechnology and new materials technology was carried out in China based on the analysis of socioeconomic needs. More than 1300 excellent experts from different domains were invited to evaluate 222 technological topics. Two rounds of the Delphi survey were processed and 46.8% respondents filled in the questionnaires in the second round. Some indices such as Iindex (importance index), Hindex (high-technique industry index) and Tindex (Traditional industry index) etc., were calculated, based on the survey data. These single indices were used to analyse the results of the investigation to different aspects and synthesis indices including Techindex and Ecoindex were also calculated on them. Significant correlation was found between Techindex and Ecoindex, also Tindex and Ecoindex. But to Hindex and Ecoindex, Sindex and Ecoindex, only scatter plots were described from the different effects of high-techniques. Based on these interactive analyses, 21 national critical techniques were selected and each of them was a technique cluster of several techniques from the original technological topics. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Technology foresight and critical technology selection in China

Authors: Qi-Quan Yang, Zhong-Ming Gong, Jia-Yu Cheng, Ge Wang

Addresses: National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development, Ministry of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 3814, Beijing, 100038, P.R. China. ' National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development, Ministry of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 3814, Beijing, 100038 P.R. China. ' National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development, Ministry of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 3814, Beijing, 100038, P.R. China. ' National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development, Ministry of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 3814, Beijing, 100038, P.R. China

Abstract: A Delphi survey in the three fields of information and communication, life science and biotechnology and new materials technology was carried out in China based on the analysis of socioeconomic needs. More than 1300 excellent experts from different domains were invited to evaluate 222 technological topics. Two rounds of the Delphi survey were processed and 46.8% respondents filled in the questionnaires in the second round. Some indices such as I_index (importance index), H_index (high-technique industry index) and T_index (Traditional industry index) etc., were calculated, based on the survey data. These single indices were used to analyse the results of the investigation to different aspects and synthesis indices including Tech_index and Eco_index were also calculated on them. Significant correlation was found between Tech_index and Eco_index, also T_index and Eco_index. But to H_index and Eco_index, S_index and Eco_index, only scatter plots were described from the different effects of high-techniques. Based on these interactive analyses, 21 national critical techniques were selected and each of them was a technique cluster of several techniques from the original technological topics.

Keywords: China; critical techniques; economy; technology selection; technology foresight.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004620

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2004 Vol.1 No.1/2, pp.168 - 180

Published online: 26 May 2004 *

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Title: Technology foresight and critical technology selection in China

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