Title: Climate change scenarios: risk and impact analysis for Alaska coastal infrastructure

Authors: Christopher W. Karvetski, James H. Lambert, Jeffrey M. Keisler, Bruce Sexauer, Igor Linkov

Addresses: Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400747, 112C Olsson Hall, 151 Engineers Way, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA. ' Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400747, 112C Olsson Hall, 151 Engineers Way, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA. ' College of Management, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA 02125-3393, USA. ' Alaska District, US Army Corps of Engineers, US Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska District, P.O. Box 6898, JBER, AK 99506-0898, Alaska. ' Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Rd., Concord, MA 01742, USA

Abstract: Climate change has the potential to impose severe stress on coastal environments. Alaskan coastlines are especially vulnerable to erosion and other changes that have led to significant damage and threats to infrastructure, human health and safety, and economic prosperity. This paper describes an integration of scenario analysis with multi-criteria decision analysis to prioritise the vulnerability of communities for the development of infrastructure protection and other actions. The approach allows stakeholders to account for uncertainty in the prioritisation and also includes value judgements of the multiple relevant stakeholders. We present a case study that evaluates several climate change scenarios and formulates metrics for finding scenarios that most impact priorities. Scenarios including sea-level rise, increased frequency of forest fires, permafrost melting, and others are used. We find the increased frequency of forest fires to be the most upsetting scenario along with four communities that are identified as highly vulnerable and not sensitive to the scenarios.

Keywords: scenario analysis; multicriteria decision analysis; MCDA; erosion prevention; Alaska climate change; scenario metrics; critical infrastructures; impact analysis; coastal infrastructure; risk assessment; vulnerabilities; uncertainty; value judgements; sea level rise; forest fires, permafrost melt.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2011.042120

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2011 Vol.15 No.2/3, pp.258 - 274

Published online: 28 Feb 2015 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article