Title: Assessing supply chain dependency on critical infrastructures using fuzzy cognitive maps

Authors: Marco Ferrari, Bastiaan Schupp, Paolo Trucco, David Ward, Jean-Pierre Nordvik

Addresses: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen – IPSC, TP 723, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. ' European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen – IPSC, TP 723, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. ' Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4/b, 20156 Milan, Italy. ' European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen – IPSC, TP 361, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. ' European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen – IPSC, TP 361, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.

Abstract: For identifying critical infrastructures, the potential consequences of their loss to society must be estimated. This requires establishing consequence propagation through the complex network of CI and supply chains. This study investigates the viability of a novel method for this purpose, which exploits fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) theory to evaluate the impact of service disruption of one infrastructure on other infrastructures and on supply chains. It integrates a knowledge elicitation technique to obtain data from domain experts. A pilot study of this method determining the impact of disruptions on the fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) supply chain obtained directly usable results. These show the importance of workforce and the relative vulnerability of this supply chain. While further development is required, the method is now regarded as an important candidate approach for ex-ante loss estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy cognitive maps; FCMs; critical infrastructures; fast moving consumer goods; FMCGs; supply chain management; SCM; supply chain dependency; interdependency; consequence analysis; infrastructure failure; cognitive mapping; service disruptions; knowledge elicitation; FMCG supply chains; supply chain vulnerability.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2011.042114

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2011 Vol.15 No.2/3, pp.149 - 170

Published online: 28 Feb 2015 *

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