Title: Empirical analysis on threats to Hong Kong port in regional competitive environment

Authors: Xin Tian, Li-Ming Liu, Si-Wei Cheng, Jianming Shi

Addresses: Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. ' Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong. ' Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. ' College of Information and Electronic Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology, Hokkaido, Japan

Abstract: Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports share the same hinterland for container cargoes. The overall container volume to and from this hinterland has grew tremendously over the last two decades. At the same time, the market shares of the two ports have been changing dramatically, especially in the last 10 years, with Shenzhen port quickly rising from a negligible local port to a world-class |equal| player. Will this trend in market share allocation continue? Will market equilibrium be reached eventually? What will be the future for Hong Kong port? To answer these questions, we need to first understand the true competitive relation between the two ports. Using the container throughput data, we show the evolving competition relationship between the two ports and in-coming threats to Hong Kong port empirically. Our empirical evidences complement the theoretical analysis in the literature.

Keywords: regional competition; container throughput; econometric modelling; Granger causality; competition coefficient; Hong Kong port; container cargoes; Shenzhen port; market share allocation; container ports.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2011.040308

International Journal of Revenue Management, 2011 Vol.5 No.2/3, pp.205 - 220

Published online: 23 May 2011 *

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