Title: The world gas market in 2030 – development scenarios using the World Gas Model

Authors: Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian Von Hirschhausen, Sophia Ruster

Addresses: DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117, Berlin, Germany. ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20901, USA. ' DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117, Berlin, Germany. ' DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117, Berlin, Germany; TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany. ' TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany

Abstract: We discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry through 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a multi-period strategic representation of the global natural gas sector, between 2005 and 2030. We specify a |base case| and then analyse the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios, including various supply scenarios (e.g., emergence of large volumes of unconventional shale gas, or tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas), the impact of CO₂-constraints, and regional scenarios focusing, respectively, on Russian and Caspian exports, the Arab Gulf, China and India, and the US Pacific coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, prices, and investments in pipelines, LNG terminals, and storage. However, the overall world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions of natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.

Keywords: natural gas trade; World Gas Model; WGM; mixed complementary problem; gas reserves; infrastructure investments; climate policy; world gas markets; energy security; gas production; gas consumption; traded volumes; gas prices; investment; gas pipelines; LNG terminals; gas storage; gas supply.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2011.039985

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2011 Vol.35 No.1, pp.64 - 84

Published online: 26 Mar 2015 *

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