Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning   »   2010 Vol.6, No.4



Title: A case of forecast-based technology evaluation and its implications


Author: Byoung Soo Kim


Address: Technology Foresight Centre, Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), 12F Dongwon Industry Bldg., 275 Yangjae-dong, Seocho-gu – Seoul 137-130, Korea


Abstract: As the importance of a national catch-up strategy, science and innovation policy, and forecasting the future is emphasised, a more advanced method of technology evaluation is needed for the emerging countries including South Korea. The methodology of forecast-based technology evaluation introduced by KISTEP consists of the Delphi survey, data analysis of papers and patents, technology growth curve fitting, and so on. Each nation's technological changes can be compared by using technology growth curves fitted from the data of the Delphi survey. With these results, R&D decision-makers can forecast the near future from a technology-level perspective.


Keywords: technology evaluation; foresight; forecasts; forecasting; catch-up strategies; science; innovation; government policies; emerging countries; South Korea; KISTEP; Delphi surveys; data analysis; patents; growth curves; technological change; R&D; research and development; decision making; near future; technology-level perspectives; technology intelligence; technology planning.


DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2010.038227


Int. J. of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2010 Vol.6, No.4, pp.317 - 325


Available online: 24 Jan 2011



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