Title: Modelling emission trends from non-constant time series of PM₁₀ concentrations in Christchurch, New Zealand

Authors: Tim Appelhans, Andrew Sturman, Peyman Zawar-Reza

Addresses: Department of Geography, College of Science, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand. ' Department of Geography, College of Science, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand. ' Department of Geography, College of Science, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

Abstract: This paper presents an attempt to model the trend of emissions through analysis of a time series of PPM₁₀ concentrations in Christchurch, New Zealand. Emissions are not constant over time, but show high seasonality. Fluctuations are removed by creating a time series in which concentrations do not show dependency on ambient air temperature. Remaining meteorological influences are removed through multiple linear regression. Finally, a moving average filter is applied to reveal the low-frequency trend in the residuals of the meteorologically adjusted time series. The modelled trend shows a peak in emissions in 2001-2002 with a steady decrease thereafter.

Keywords: particulate matter; PM10; air pollution meteorology; multiple linear regression; New Zealand; air quality; time series analysis; pollutant emissions; home heating.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2010.036932

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2010 Vol.43 No.4, pp.354 - 363

Published online: 16 Nov 2010 *

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