Title: A neural network-based approach for the prediction of urban SO₂ concentrations in the Istanbul metropolitan area

Authors: Atilla Akkoyunlu, Kaan Yetilmezsoy, Ferruh Erturk, Ercan Oztemel

Addresses: Faculty of Engineering, Civil Engineering, Bogazici University, 34342, Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey. ' Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, 34220, Davutpasa Campus, Esenler, Istanbul, Turkey. ' Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, 34220, Davutpasa Campus, Esenler, Istanbul, Turkey. ' Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Marmara University, 34722, Goztepe Campus, Kadikoy, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: A three-layer Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was developed to forecast air pollution levels. The subsequent SO₂ concentration (24-hour averaged) being the output parameter of this study was estimated by seven input parameters such as preceding SO₂ concentrations (24-hour averaged), average daily temperature, sea-level pressure, relative humidity, cloudiness, average daily wind speed and daily dominant wind direction. After Backpropagation training combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the proposed model predicted subsequent SO₂ values based on measured data. ANN testing outputs were proven to be satisfactory with correlation coefficients of about 0.770, 0.744 and 0.751 for the winter, summer and overall data, respectively.

Keywords: ANN; artificial neural networks; backpropagation algorithm; modelling; meteorological data; SO2; air pollution; urban air quality; Turkey; Istanbul; sulfur dioxide; sulphur dioxide; pollution prediction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2010.031752

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2010 Vol.40 No.4, pp.301 - 321

Published online: 23 Feb 2010 *

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