Title: Research on international logistics dynamics with uncertain exchange rate

Authors: Li Zhu, Lothar Schulze, Lindu Zhao

Addresses: College of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China. ' College of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China; Department Planning and Controlling of Warehouse and Transport Systems (PSLT), Leibniz University, Hannover, D-30167 Hannover, Germany. ' College of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China; Department Planning and Controlling of Warehouse and Transport Systems (PSLT), Leibniz University, Hannover, D-30167 Hannover, Germany

Abstract: The movement of exchange rate influences the equilibrium of entire international logistics system. Based on reviewing literature on international logistics optimisation, exchange rate risk and multi-product flow are first attempted to be integrated into international logistics dynamic model. The decision-making purpose of the model is to maximise expectation revenue with psychological anticipation. And then more reliable equilibrium transaction volume and equilibrium transaction price are found out. Using projection gradient algorithms, numerical simulation and stability analysis are presented by MATLAB software. The convergence effect and stability of simulation result prove the validity of multi-product dynamic international logistics system model with uncertain exchange rate.

Keywords: international logistics; global supply chains; dynamic equilibrium; gradient projection; exchange rate fluctuation; logistics dynamics; uncertain exchange rates; logistics optimisation; exchange rate risk; multi-product flow; decision making; simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSSCI.2009.026546

International Journal of Services Sciences, 2009 Vol.2 No.3/4, pp.350 - 365

Published online: 19 Jun 2009 *

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