Title: Future scenarios of the technological knowledge generation by multinational enterprises

Authors: Dana Mietzner, Guido Reger

Addresses: Centre for Entrepreneurship and Innovation, University of Potsdam (BIEM-CEIP), Am Park Babelsberg 14, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany. ' Centre for Entrepreneurship and Innovation, University of Potsdam (BIEM-CEIP), August-Bebel Strasse 89, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyse trends and possible future changes in the way of knowledge production by Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) and the relative role of MNE in the European Research Area. Various scenarios of the future of knowledge production by multinationals will be developed. The time horizon of the scenario will be to 2020. R&D is hereby considered as one core element. Four consistent scenarios are built. In The Long Boom scenario, the investment in technological knowledge is dramatic and highly globally distributed. In the Ups and Downs scenario, the overall investment in innovation stagnates and correlates with the economic up-and-down swings. The Handpicked Innovation scenario includes that MNE generate innovation only by chance and focuses on internal knowledge generation. In the Zero Growth scenario, MNEs restrain competition and technological knowledge becomes less and less important to differentiate in competition.

Keywords: futures research; foresight; scenario analysis; research and development; R&D; Europe; knowledge production; internationalisation; technological knowledge; knowledge generation; innovation; multinational enterprises; MNEs; multinational corporations; MNCs.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2007.015648

International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2007 Vol.3 No.2, pp.141 - 156

Published online: 06 Nov 2007 *

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