Title: Predicting citations to biotechnology patents based on the information from the patent documents

Authors: Bou-Wen Lin, Chung-Jen Chen, Hsueh-Liang Wu

Addresses: Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing Hua University, 101, Sec. 2, Kuan-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan, ROC. ' Department of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, 1, Ta-Hsueh Road, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC. ' Department of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, 1, Ta-Hsueh Road, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to develop a simple and robust model for predicting citations to a patent based on the information from the front page of the patent documents. The number of citations received is frequently used as an indicator of the value and importance of a patent. However, it takes a long time for a patent to accumulate a large number of citations from later patents. Highly cited patents may well be very old and accordingly may not represent cutting-edge technology. If we can predict the pattern of citations to a patent right after it is granted, the tradability of patents will be greatly enhanced. This paper provides a simple regression model to predict citations to biotechnology patents from the front pages of patent documents. The model can be used as a supplementary evaluation tool in mergers and acquisitions, strategic technology planning, valuation of high-tech firms and R&D performance evaluation.

Keywords: patent citations; biotechnology patents; patent documents; R&D performance; citation prediction; regression modelling; technology management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.2007.013528

International Journal of Technology Management, 2007 Vol.40 No.1/2/3, pp.87 - 100

Published online: 03 May 2007 *

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