Title: Does fund managers' timing ability depend on market conditions? Evidence from Turkish variable funds

Authors: Hale Yalcin; Sema Dube

Addresses: Financial Economics Program, Institute of Social Sciences, Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey ' Financial Economics Program, Institute of Social Sciences, Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: We examine market timing by Turkish variable-fund managers during 2011-2016 within a panel data framework, using interaction variables to control for market conditions. We find strong evidence for market-timing ability, which increases with country openness, global emerging-market portfolio returns, economic growth and, to a smaller extent, derivative market size; and decreases with technological advancement. We also find no evidence for security selection ability. Our results suggest that market timing ability depends on market conditions and it may be important to control for such conditions in studies that seek to determine managerial performance.

Keywords: market timing; emerging markets; technology; openness; panel data.

DOI: 10.1504/AAJFA.2021.117743

Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2021 Vol.11 No.4, pp.634 - 646

Received: 11 May 2019
Accepted: 06 Apr 2020
Published online: 23 Sep 2021 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article