Title: Review of India's crude oil production history and its peak oil period estimation using Hubbert's theory and a technique based on statistical analysis

Authors: Jatin R. Agarwal; Meet J. Shah

Addresses: School of Petroleum Technology, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar, India ' School of Petroleum Technology, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar, India

Abstract: The paper focuses on peak oil period estimation of one of the fastest growing economies of the world, India. Complete information of independent India's conventional crude oil production history (1950-2016) was gathered along with the seven major factors influencing its production namely crude oil consumption, crude oil import, crude oil export, crude oil reserve, rig count, Brent and gross domestic product. Pearson correlation, factor analysis and cluster tree analysis were conducted on the seven mentioned parameters. Furthermore, Hubbert's theory along with a novel technique based on nonlinear regression was utilised to estimate and predict the peak time of crude oil production of India. The developed statistical model indicates that the peak oil time for conventional crude of India has already occurred in 2012 and the estimation of peak oil time of India to occur in 2018 from Hubbert's theory might be an overestimation. The objective of the research is to find the dominant factors influencing the crude oil production of India and to develop a novel procedure to give realistic estimate of peak oil time of India's conventional crude oil production with the help of Hubbert's theory.

Keywords: Hubbert's peak oil theory; Indian crude oil production; peak oil estimation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBG.2021.117406

International Journal of Business and Globalisation, 2021 Vol.29 No.1, pp.80 - 98

Received: 04 Jul 2018
Accepted: 02 Apr 2019
Published online: 06 Sep 2021 *

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