An analysis of the electricity market and power needs in Shandong using vector autoregression Online publication date: Tue, 24-Jan-2017
by Songqing Yu; Junhai Ma; Hang Min; Xueli Zhan
International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences (IJADS), Vol. 10, No. 1, 2017
Abstract: Based on relevant data of economic and social development in Shandong Province, the authors analyse the status of the electricity market and determined four factors which affect the electricity demand: economic development, energy structure, power supply and demand as well as electricity demand structure. This paper analyses the stability of the electricity demand variable by augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and projection pursuit (PP) test, and analyses DCO-integration of them by Engle-Granger (EG) method and Johansen method. Based on stability and cointegration analysis, this paper emphasised a VAR model to analyse the correlation between electricity demand indicators and four other influencing factors. In the end, this paper suggested that had a certain theoretical and practical significance for Shandong Provincial Electric Power Development.
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