Forward patent citations as predictors for patent valuation
by M. Hosein Fallah, Elliot Fishman, Richard R. Reilly
International Journal of Intellectual Property Management (IJIPM), Vol. 4, No. 3, 2011

Abstract: It has long been understood that highly cited patents tend to be more commercially valuable than patents that are not frequently cited. Early identification of highly cited patents would enable a technology manager to concentrate commercialisation resources on the most promising assets in a technology portfolio. There is therefore a need for predictive models of forward citation counts. We propose and test a theory that early forward citation observations can be a leading indicator of the future citations over the lifespan of a patent. The predictive model presented herein has implications for patent valuation, patent portfolio management and qualitative patent ranking programmes.

Online publication date: Fri, 31-Oct-2014

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