Foresight in Germany: the example of the Delphi '98 or: how can the future be shaped?
by Kerstin Cuhls, Knut Blind
International Journal of Technology Management (IJTM), Vol. 21, No. 7/8, 2001

Abstract: The German foresight experiences started at the beginning of the 1990s with a comprehensive Delphi study conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the Federal German Ministry for Science and Technology (BMFT, since 1994 BMBF). The second large German Foresight study on the global development of science and technology - called Delphi '98 - was more concentrated on German needs to provide companies, ministries, research institutions or other interested actors in the R&D system with information about the future. In the Delphi '98, not only emerging technologies but also 19 general megatrends were asked about. The German Delphi process is organised with a steering group and expert panels for the creation of visionary topics, a two-round Delphi survey with a feedback loop and an implementation phase with workshops and an Internet platform for the diffusion and discussion of the results. Some of them are described in this article. A follow-up process ''FUTUR'' is supposed to continue the work of exploring and shaping the future.

Online publication date: Thu, 26-Jun-2003

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Technology Management (IJTM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

    Username:        Password:         

Forgotten your password?


Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com