Statistical analysis of fatal crash in Michigan using more than two time series models
by Liming Xie
International Journal of Data Science (IJDS), Vol. 5, No. 1, 2020

Abstract: This paper is to analyse Michigan fatal crash (MFC) in 1974-2014 as time series data using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (0,0,1)-GARCH models to predict future values and trends. The author would like to use the heteroskedasticity from the object, such as the rates of incidence, is tested by the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) or generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). The best model of ARCH is to measure the volatility of the MFC so that the future values are predicted. Both ARIMA and ARCH or GARCH models are used to predict future values. The results suggest that GARCH modelling clinch the dynamic change of variance exactly. It suggests that the ARIMA-ARCH/GARCH hybrid modelling is the best method to predict the ahead values of covering the heteroskedastic original objects. Finally, using both ARCH/GARCH forecasting models to predict the future values and the trend of MFC. The results show downward trends.

Online publication date: Thu, 10-Sep-2020

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Data Science (IJDS):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

    Username:        Password:         

Forgotten your password?


Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com