Most recent issue published online in the International Journal of Trade and Global Markets.
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets
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International Journal of Trade and Global Markets
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http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=130&year=2024&vol=19&issue=1
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Initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact during Covid-19
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=136907
The objective of this study is to analyse the correlation between initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 on OECD economies. The study uses group-wise multivariate linear regression modelling to examine the link between macroeconomic variables of interest and the duration of the pandemic, severity of its impact, and annual investment growth rate. The main result from the study shows that variables related to debt such as domestic credit to private sector, private sector debt and debt-to-GDP ratio had significant relationship with the duration and severity of the crisis as well as the investment growth rate during Covid-19. The original contribution of the study is in bringing out the correlation between initial conditions and first order effects of the pandemic on the economy. The policy implications of the results indicate short, medium and long-term measures required to mitigate the systematic risk posed by the pandemic.
Initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact during Covid-19
Francis Kuriakose; Deepa Kylasam Iyer
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 4 - 27
The objective of this study is to analyse the correlation between initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 on OECD economies. The study uses group-wise multivariate linear regression modelling to examine the link between macroeconomic variables of interest and the duration of the pandemic, severity of its impact, and annual investment growth rate. The main result from the study shows that variables related to debt such as domestic credit to private sector, private sector debt and debt-to-GDP ratio had significant relationship with the duration and severity of the crisis as well as the investment growth rate during Covid-19. The original contribution of the study is in bringing out the correlation between initial conditions and first order effects of the pandemic on the economy. The policy implications of the results indicate short, medium and long-term measures required to mitigate the systematic risk posed by the pandemic.]]>
10.1504/IJTGM.2024.136907
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 4 - 27
Francis Kuriakose
Deepa Kylasam Iyer
Cambridge Development Initiative, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3RF, UK ' Centre of Development Studies, Allison Richard Building, 7 West Road, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 9DT, UK
OECD
Covid-19
macroeconomic impact
economic growth
investment
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Copyright © 2024 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
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4
27
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Management of non-performing assets in India: role of risk management practices in the wake of Covid-19
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=136899
The purpose of the present study is to analyse the impact of banks' internal practices for risk management, Basel III regulations, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), 2016, and the Covid-19 pandemic on the outcome received in reference to NPA management. The study has worked on primary data collected from the final sample of 111 managerial employees working in domestic commercial banks of India, using a structured questionnaire. For analysing the collected data, statistical tools of exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM) comprising of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and path analysis, have been used. The results indicate that the banks' internal practices for risk management, regulatory standards and IBC, 2016 are beneficial for the asset quality of banks. On the contrary, emergence and rapid spread of Covid-19 has made the situation of NPA worse and has halted the progress made in NPA management.
Management of non-performing assets in India: role of risk management practices in the wake of Covid-19
Dolly Gaur
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 28 - 55
The purpose of the present study is to analyse the impact of banks' internal practices for risk management, Basel III regulations, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), 2016, and the Covid-19 pandemic on the outcome received in reference to NPA management. The study has worked on primary data collected from the final sample of 111 managerial employees working in domestic commercial banks of India, using a structured questionnaire. For analysing the collected data, statistical tools of exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM) comprising of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and path analysis, have been used. The results indicate that the banks' internal practices for risk management, regulatory standards and IBC, 2016 are beneficial for the asset quality of banks. On the contrary, emergence and rapid spread of Covid-19 has made the situation of NPA worse and has halted the progress made in NPA management.]]>
10.1504/IJTGM.2024.136899
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 28 - 55
Francis Kuriakose
Deepa Kylasam Iyer
Symbiosis Centre for Management Studies, Symbiosis International University, Noida, UP, 201301, India
NPA
non-performing assets
risk management practices
Basel III
insolvency and bankruptcy code
2016
Covid-19
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Copyright © 2024 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
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28
55
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The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Indonesian export and import of food crops
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=136901
During the Covid-19 pandemic global economic growth including Indonesia decreased up to 5-6%. Trading volume decreased 9.2% and international cargo transportation decreases 23%. The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of Covid-19 on the balance and position of Indonesian Food Crops international trade in ASEAN. Trade value balance for Indonesian food crops before the pandemic in average suffered a deficit of USD 3.309.449. During the pandemic, the projection for the trade value balance was a deficit of USD 2.966.515. There is an optimistic potential of market share development for rice and maize in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam due to the value's position in falling star and rising star quadrant. To enhance competitiveness of food crop's export, several policies needed are: incentives for cultivation, optimisation of farmer institution, tariff regulation, quota system, and import license.
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Indonesian export and import of food crops
Adang Agustian; Rizma Aldillah; Imam Mujahidin Fahmid; Darmawan Salman; Wahyudi; Benny Rachman; Sri Hery Susilowati; Sumaryanto; Chairul Muslim; Kurnia Suci Indraningsih
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 56 - 69
During the Covid-19 pandemic global economic growth including Indonesia decreased up to 5-6%. Trading volume decreased 9.2% and international cargo transportation decreases 23%. The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of Covid-19 on the balance and position of Indonesian Food Crops international trade in ASEAN. Trade value balance for Indonesian food crops before the pandemic in average suffered a deficit of USD 3.309.449. During the pandemic, the projection for the trade value balance was a deficit of USD 2.966.515. There is an optimistic potential of market share development for rice and maize in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam due to the value's position in falling star and rising star quadrant. To enhance competitiveness of food crop's export, several policies needed are: incentives for cultivation, optimisation of farmer institution, tariff regulation, quota system, and import license.]]>
10.1504/IJTGM.2024.136901
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 56 - 69
Adang Agustian
Rizma Aldillah
Imam Mujahidin Fahmid
Darmawan Salman
Wahyudi
Benny Rachman
Sri Hery Susilowati
Sumaryanto
Chairul Muslim
Kurnia Suci Indraningsih
The Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia ' The Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia ' Department Agricultural Science, Graduate School, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, 90245, Indonesia ' Department Agricultural Science, Graduate School, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, 90245, Indonesia ' Planning Bureau, Secretariat General of the Ministry of Agriculture Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, 12550, Indonesia ' The Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia ' The Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia ' The Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia ' The Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia ' The Research Center for Social Welfare, Village and Connectivity, The National Innovation Research Agency, Jakarta, 12710, Indonesia
Covid-19
competitiveness
export import
export product dynamic
food crops
import license
quota system
tariff regulation
trade value balance
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Copyright © 2024 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
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The impact of Covid-19 on stock market returns in India
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=136902
We examine the impact of Covid-19 on the stock market returns in India. This paper uses the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH), and general linear model (GLM). The data was used to analyse pre-Covid and Covid markets' daily closing prices of stock market indices. After the outbreak of Covid-19, the stock market became nervous as BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty fell by 38%. It led to a 27.31% loss in the total stock market from the beginning of the year. We find that the daily growth rate in Covid-19 cases and Covid-19 deaths are negatively associated with stock returns. Using information criteria and forecasting accuracy measures, we show that the Covid-19 confirmed cases contribute statistically significant information to the modelling of volatility and increase the forecasting ability of the volatility of the Indian stock market index, leading to a decrease in the mean stock index.
The impact of Covid-19 on stock market returns in India
Nenavath Sreenu
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 70 - 84
We examine the impact of Covid-19 on the stock market returns in India. This paper uses the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH), and general linear model (GLM). The data was used to analyse pre-Covid and Covid markets' daily closing prices of stock market indices. After the outbreak of Covid-19, the stock market became nervous as BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty fell by 38%. It led to a 27.31% loss in the total stock market from the beginning of the year. We find that the daily growth rate in Covid-19 cases and Covid-19 deaths are negatively associated with stock returns. Using information criteria and forecasting accuracy measures, we show that the Covid-19 confirmed cases contribute statistically significant information to the modelling of volatility and increase the forecasting ability of the volatility of the Indian stock market index, leading to a decrease in the mean stock index.]]>
10.1504/IJTGM.2024.136902
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 70 - 84
Adang Agustian
Rizma Aldillah
Imam Mujahidin Fahmid
Darmawan Salman
Wahyudi
Benny Rachman
Sri Hery Susilowati
Sumaryanto
Chairul Muslim
Kurnia Suci Indraningsih
Department of Management Studies, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, 462003, India
Covid-19
stock price
market returns
economic growth
autoregressive integrated moving average
ARIMA
ARCH
2024-02-27T23:20:50-05:00
Copyright © 2024 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
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70
84
2024-02-27T23:20:50-05:00
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Modelling price volatility in energy futures during Covid-19
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=136903
Studies using various models have been undertaken to measure the impact of Covid-19 on energy futures but very few have focussed on identifying the best model. Therefore, this paper applied various models like GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH and PGARCH with three error distribution terms to identify the best fit model that measures the volatility in Natural gas and Crude oil futures traded on MCX, before and during the pandemic. Further, it has tried to study volatility spillover effects of spot and futures prices for the entire duration by employing Bivariate BEKK GARCH Model. The results show the variation in leverage effect in both the futures and existence of bi-directional volatility spillover in long and short period. The findings of the study can help financial market players to have better understanding of the market dynamics of natural gas and crude oil volatility and help stakeholders deal with energy futures market volatility in a better way.
Modelling price volatility in energy futures during Covid-19
Yashmin Khatun; Sabat Kumar Digal; Dushyant Mahadik
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 85 - 109
Studies using various models have been undertaken to measure the impact of Covid-19 on energy futures but very few have focussed on identifying the best model. Therefore, this paper applied various models like GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH and PGARCH with three error distribution terms to identify the best fit model that measures the volatility in Natural gas and Crude oil futures traded on MCX, before and during the pandemic. Further, it has tried to study volatility spillover effects of spot and futures prices for the entire duration by employing Bivariate BEKK GARCH Model. The results show the variation in leverage effect in both the futures and existence of bi-directional volatility spillover in long and short period. The findings of the study can help financial market players to have better understanding of the market dynamics of natural gas and crude oil volatility and help stakeholders deal with energy futures market volatility in a better way.]]>
10.1504/IJTGM.2024.136903
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2024) pp. 85 - 109
Yashmin Khatun
Sabat Kumar Digal
Dushyant Mahadik
School of Management, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, 769008, India ' Department of Commerce, Rama Devi Women's University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, 751022, India ' School of Management, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, 769008, India
Covid-19
volatility
energy futures
GARCH models
volatility spillover
crude oil
natural gas
forecasting
2024-02-27T23:20:50-05:00
Copyright © 2024 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
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109
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