International Journal of Reliability and Safety http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=98&year=2012&vol=6&issue=1/2/3 Inderscience Publishers Ltd en-uk International Journal of Reliability and Safety 1479-389X 1479-3903 © 2012 Inderscience Publishers Ltd editor@inderscience.com https://www.inderscience.com/images/files/coverImgs/ijrs_scoverijrs.jpg http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=98&year=2012&vol=6&issue=1/2/3 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44332 This paper reviews the strategies toward the verification/checking of the construction process for structural safety and performance. The notorious problem with this is that it must be enacted with limited resources in terms of expenditure, time and personnel, while not producing any tangible return. Originally, checking and verification were thought to be the essence of quality assurance, through uncovering and correcting faults and errors. The concept of quality assurance has, however, been derailed and has become mostly a documentation-producing exercise without any real effect on faultiness. Of reality, quality and Murphy’s law: strategies for eliminating human error and mitigating its effects
Franz Knoll
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 3 - 14
This paper reviews the strategies toward the verification/checking of the construction process for structural safety and performance. The notorious problem with this is that it must be enacted with limited resources in terms of expenditure, time and personnel, while not producing any tangible return. Originally, checking and verification were thought to be the essence of quality assurance, through uncovering and correcting faults and errors. The concept of quality assurance has, however, been derailed and has become mostly a documentation-producing exercise without any real effect on faultiness.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044332 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 3 - 14 Franz Knoll Nicolet Chartrand Knoll Ltd., 1200 McGill College Avenue, Montreal (Quebec) H3B 4G7, Canada human error quality control risk construction process structural safety structural performance quality assurance. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 3 14 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44293 The issue of robustness assessment for progressive collapse of structures has been paid much attention to in the community of civil engineering since the 9/11 event. In this paper, both deterministic indices and reliability-based indices are introduced to quantify the robustness of a structure. The conventional deterministic pushdown analysis is improved to take into account the loading scheme for simulating column loss. To consider stochastic system properties, a random pushdown analysis is proposed by an improved point estimation method based on Nataf transformation. By using the developed pushdown methods, the reserve load carrying capacity of the damaged structure is evaluated, the robustness for resisting progressive collapse of the damaged structure is quantitatively assessed and the key element to be removed which is critical to structural global performance is identified. A code-conforming reinforced concrete frame structure is taken as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the newly developed methods. Robustness assessment for progressive collapse of framed structures using pushdown analysis methods
Da-Gang Lu; Shuang-Shuang Cui; Peng-Yan Song; Zhi-Heng Chen
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 15 - 37
The issue of robustness assessment for progressive collapse of structures has been paid much attention to in the community of civil engineering since the 9/11 event. In this paper, both deterministic indices and reliability-based indices are introduced to quantify the robustness of a structure. The conventional deterministic pushdown analysis is improved to take into account the loading scheme for simulating column loss. To consider stochastic system properties, a random pushdown analysis is proposed by an improved point estimation method based on Nataf transformation. By using the developed pushdown methods, the reserve load carrying capacity of the damaged structure is evaluated, the robustness for resisting progressive collapse of the damaged structure is quantitatively assessed and the key element to be removed which is critical to structural global performance is identified. A code-conforming reinforced concrete frame structure is taken as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the newly developed methods.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044293 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 15 - 37 Da-Gang Lu; Shuang-Shuang Cui; Peng-Yan Song; Zhi-Heng Chen School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China. ' School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China. ' School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China. ' School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China deterministic indices robustness indicies reliability progressive collapse pushdown analysis global reliability robustness assessment structural collapse robust structures column loss loading damaged structures point estimation reinforced concrete frames. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 15 37 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44303 In structural engineering, shear beams and their dynamic behaviour play an important role in modelling, analysis and design of various types of structures subjected to a system of dynamic loads such as wind or earthquake excitations. However, in current procedures of dynamic analysis of shear beams, the presence of uncertainty in the system’s mechanical properties and/or applied forces is not considered. In this work, a new method for dynamic modal analysis of continuous uncertain shear beams subjected to uncertain external loads is developed. First, an interval formulation is used to quantify the uncertainty present in the system’s mechanical characteristics and/or magnitude of dynamic forces. Then, having the interval parameters, the bounds on modal responses of the continuous system are obtained leading to determination of the upper bounds of total response that may be used for design purposes. An example problem that illustrates the behaviour of the method and a comparison with Monte Carlo simulations are presented. Using this new method, it has been shown that obtaining the bounds on the dynamic response of a shear beam does not require an iterative procedure such as Monte Carlo simulations. Reliable dynamic analysis of an uncertain shear beam
Mehdi Modares
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 38 - 48
In structural engineering, shear beams and their dynamic behaviour play an important role in modelling, analysis and design of various types of structures subjected to a system of dynamic loads such as wind or earthquake excitations. However, in current procedures of dynamic analysis of shear beams, the presence of uncertainty in the system’s mechanical properties and/or applied forces is not considered. In this work, a new method for dynamic modal analysis of continuous uncertain shear beams subjected to uncertain external loads is developed. First, an interval formulation is used to quantify the uncertainty present in the system’s mechanical characteristics and/or magnitude of dynamic forces. Then, having the interval parameters, the bounds on modal responses of the continuous system are obtained leading to determination of the upper bounds of total response that may be used for design purposes. An example problem that illustrates the behaviour of the method and a comparison with Monte Carlo simulations are presented. Using this new method, it has been shown that obtaining the bounds on the dynamic response of a shear beam does not require an iterative procedure such as Monte Carlo simulations.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044303 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 38 - 48 Mehdi Modares Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616, USA dynamics dynamic analysis shear beams interval uncertainty structural engineering modal analysis Monte Carlo simulation. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 38 48 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44294 In the geotechnical determination of the cohesion c and the angle of internal friction ? of a soil from shear tests, a linear regression model is fitted to normal and shear stress data, and confidence bounds are computed. The applicability of standard linear regression is limited by the physical requirement of non-negative cohesion and the statistical requirement of normality. We propose two methods from computational statistics that are able to overcome both obstacles: a bootstrap resampling method in case the experimental data set is sufficiently large, and a Bayesian approach for small samples. The methods are demonstrated at the hand of a real data set for glacial silt. Robust assessment of shear parameters from direct shear tests
Wolfgang Fellin; Michael Oberguggenberger
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 49 - 64
In the geotechnical determination of the cohesion c and the angle of internal friction ? of a soil from shear tests, a linear regression model is fitted to normal and shear stress data, and confidence bounds are computed. The applicability of standard linear regression is limited by the physical requirement of non-negative cohesion and the statistical requirement of normality. We propose two methods from computational statistics that are able to overcome both obstacles: a bootstrap resampling method in case the experimental data set is sufficiently large, and a Bayesian approach for small samples. The methods are demonstrated at the hand of a real data set for glacial silt.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044294 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 49 - 64 Wolfgang Fellin; Michael Oberguggenberger Institute of Geotechnical and Tunnel Engineering, University of Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria. ' Unit of Engineering Mathematics, University of Innsbruck, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria shear parameters non-normal regression Bayesian methods bootstrap confidence intervals computational statistics glacial silt geotechnical engineering soil parameters. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 49 64 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44298 Past studies of uncertainty handling with polyhedral clouds have already shown strength in dealing with higher dimensional uncertainties in robust optimisation, even in case of partial ignorance of statistical information. However, the number of function evaluations necessary to quantify and propagate the uncertainties has been too high to be useful in many real-life applications with respect to limitations of computational cost. In this paper, we propose a simulation-based approach for optimisation over a polyhedron, inspired by the Cauchy deviates method. Thus, we achieve a computationally efficient method to compute worst-case scenarios with polyhedral clouds which we embed in a robust optimisation problem formulation. We apply the method to two test cases from space system design. Simulated polyhedral clouds in robust optimisation
Martin Fuchs
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 65 - 81
Past studies of uncertainty handling with polyhedral clouds have already shown strength in dealing with higher dimensional uncertainties in robust optimisation, even in case of partial ignorance of statistical information. However, the number of function evaluations necessary to quantify and propagate the uncertainties has been too high to be useful in many real-life applications with respect to limitations of computational cost. In this paper, we propose a simulation-based approach for optimisation over a polyhedron, inspired by the Cauchy deviates method. Thus, we achieve a computationally efficient method to compute worst-case scenarios with polyhedral clouds which we embed in a robust optimisation problem formulation. We apply the method to two test cases from space system design.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044298 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 65 - 81 Martin Fuchs CERFACS, Parallel Algorithms Team, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, Toulouse 31057, France polyhedral clouds robust optimisation high-dimensional uncertainty handling Cauchy deviates method incomplete information reliable computing simulation polyhedron space system design. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 65 81 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44299 Advances in neural computing have shown that a neural learning approach that uses Bayesian inference can essentially eliminate the problem of over fitting, which is common with conventional back-propagation neural networks. In addition, Bayesian neural network can provide the confidence (error) associated with its prediction. This paper presents the application of Bayesian learning to train a multilayer perceptron network to predict the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement. The automatic relevance determination technique was employed to assess the relative importance of the different input variables considered in this study on the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams. The performance of the Bayesian neural network is examined and discussed along with that of current shear design provisions. Predicting the shear resistance of RC beams without shear reinforcement using a Bayesian neural network
Osimen Iruansi; Maurizio Guadagnini; Kypros Pilakoutas; Kyriacos Neocleous
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 82 - 109
Advances in neural computing have shown that a neural learning approach that uses Bayesian inference can essentially eliminate the problem of over fitting, which is common with conventional back-propagation neural networks. In addition, Bayesian neural network can provide the confidence (error) associated with its prediction. This paper presents the application of Bayesian learning to train a multilayer perceptron network to predict the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement. The automatic relevance determination technique was employed to assess the relative importance of the different input variables considered in this study on the shear resistance of reinforced concrete beams. The performance of the Bayesian neural network is examined and discussed along with that of current shear design provisions.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044299 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 82 - 109 Osimen Iruansi; Maurizio Guadagnini; Kypros Pilakoutas; Kyriacos Neocleous Centre for Cement and Concrete, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK. ' Centre for Cement and Concrete, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK. ' Centre for Cement and Concrete, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK. ' Centre for Cement and Concrete, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK Bayesian learning neural networks reinforced concrete beams shear resistance uncertainty modelling shear reinforcement. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 82 109 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44292 Probability-box (p-box) is a rigorous and practical way to represent epistemic sources of uncertainty where the available knowledge is insufficient to construct the required probability distributions. In this paper, interval finite element (FE) methods are combined with the concept of p-box to analyse structures subjected to uncertain loads modelled by p-boxes. Two methods, namely the discrete p-box convolution and interval Monte Carlo methods, are presented along with example problems. The computational efficiency of the p-box FE method is also presented. Structural analysis with probability-boxes
Hao Zhang; Robert L. Mullen; Rafi L. Muhanna
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 110 - 129
Probability-box (p-box) is a rigorous and practical way to represent epistemic sources of uncertainty where the available knowledge is insufficient to construct the required probability distributions. In this paper, interval finite element (FE) methods are combined with the concept of p-box to analyse structures subjected to uncertain loads modelled by p-boxes. Two methods, namely the discrete p-box convolution and interval Monte Carlo methods, are presented along with example problems. The computational efficiency of the p-box FE method is also presented.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044292 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 110 - 129 Hao Zhang; Robert L. Mullen; Rafi L. Muhanna School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA. ' School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Savannah, GA 31407, USA epistemic uncertainty imprecise probability interval analysis interval FEM finite element method Monte Carlo simulation probability boxes random sets structural reliability. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 110 129 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44304 The main topic of this study is an estimation of loading conditions of crane-hooks. We examine the relation between the applied load condition and hook’s deformation by FEM analysis. The relation is recorded into the load-deformation database. The feature points are detected on failed crane-hook image in order to compare the image with the recorded deformation information in the load-deformation database. The analysis record corresponding to the failed crane-hook image is then obtained by means of a difference-minimisation approach. On the basis of the Bayesian theory, we estimate the probability distribution of the load condition, that is, the applied point and the direction of the critical load that causes the failure. The following tendency of the critical load is observed based on the obtained results in this study: the load applied point is not at the most downward position and the load direction is not the normal direction to the tangential line of the hook curve. Estimation of loading conditions of failed crane-hook: an image-based approach with knowledge and simulation
Takao Muromaki; Kazuyuki Hanahara; Yukio Tada; Takuma Nishimura
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 130 - 147
The main topic of this study is an estimation of loading conditions of crane-hooks. We examine the relation between the applied load condition and hook’s deformation by FEM analysis. The relation is recorded into the load-deformation database. The feature points are detected on failed crane-hook image in order to compare the image with the recorded deformation information in the load-deformation database. The analysis record corresponding to the failed crane-hook image is then obtained by means of a difference-minimisation approach. On the basis of the Bayesian theory, we estimate the probability distribution of the load condition, that is, the applied point and the direction of the critical load that causes the failure. The following tendency of the critical load is observed based on the obtained results in this study: the load applied point is not at the most downward position and the load direction is not the normal direction to the tangential line of the hook curve.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044304 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 130 - 147 Takao Muromaki; Kazuyuki Hanahara; Yukio Tada; Takuma Nishimura Graduate School of Engineering, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan. ' Graduate School of System Informatics, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan. ' Graduate School of System Informatics, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan. ' Graduate School of Engineering, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan loading conditions database approach Bayesian theory crane hook failure finite element method FEM digital image processing crane hooks hook deformation. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 130 147 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44306 In most application areas, we need to take care of several (reasonably independent) participants: we want to make sure that all the economic regions prosper, that all the geographic regions have healthy environment, that all the students learn all the needed knowledge and skills. The amount of resources is usually limited, so we face the problem of optimally distributing these resources between different objects. To solve the resulting optimisation problem, we need to know for each participant i the utility resulting from investing effort e in the participant. In practice, we only know this value with (interval) uncertainty. So, for each distribution of efforts, instead of a single value of the group utility, we only have an interval of possible values. To compare such intervals, we use Hurwicz optimism pessimism criterion well justified in decision making. In this paper, we propose a solution to the resulting optimisation problems. Towards optimal effort distribution in process design under uncertainty, with application to education
Olga Kosheleva; Vladik Kreinovich
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 148 - 166
In most application areas, we need to take care of several (reasonably independent) participants: we want to make sure that all the economic regions prosper, that all the geographic regions have healthy environment, that all the students learn all the needed knowledge and skills. The amount of resources is usually limited, so we face the problem of optimally distributing these resources between different objects. To solve the resulting optimisation problem, we need to know for each participant i the utility resulting from investing effort e in the participant. In practice, we only know this value with (interval) uncertainty. So, for each distribution of efforts, instead of a single value of the group utility, we only have an interval of possible values. To compare such intervals, we use Hurwicz optimism pessimism criterion well justified in decision making. In this paper, we propose a solution to the resulting optimisation problems.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044306 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 148 - 166 Olga Kosheleva; Vladik Kreinovich Department of Teacher Education, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA interval uncertainty distribution of effort optimisation under uncertainty Hurwicz optimism pessimism criterion resource distribution education teaching strategies. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 148 166 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44307 One of the most important studies of the earth sciences is that of the Earth’s interior structure. There are many sources of data for the construction of tomographic models of earth structure. These include the time of the first arriving waves from earthquakes and from man-made sources, measurements of the earth’s gravity field and measurements of the dispersion of surface waves generated from earthquakes. Formally integrating the information derived from multiple types of data sources is an important theoretical and practical challenge. While such combination methods are being developed, as a first step, we propose a practical solution: to fuse the Earth models coming from different data sets. The models used in this paper contain measurements that have not only different accuracy and coverage but also different spatial resolution. We describe how to fuse such models under interval and probabilistic uncertainty. The resulting techniques can be used in other situations when we need to merge models of different accuracy and spatial resolution. Model fusion under probabilistic and interval uncertainty, with application to Earth sciences
Omar Ochoa; Aaron A. Velasco; Christian Servin; Vladik Kreinovich
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 167 - 187
One of the most important studies of the earth sciences is that of the Earth’s interior structure. There are many sources of data for the construction of tomographic models of earth structure. These include the time of the first arriving waves from earthquakes and from man-made sources, measurements of the earth’s gravity field and measurements of the dispersion of surface waves generated from earthquakes. Formally integrating the information derived from multiple types of data sources is an important theoretical and practical challenge. While such combination methods are being developed, as a first step, we propose a practical solution: to fuse the Earth models coming from different data sets. The models used in this paper contain measurements that have not only different accuracy and coverage but also different spatial resolution. We describe how to fuse such models under interval and probabilistic uncertainty. The resulting techniques can be used in other situations when we need to merge models of different accuracy and spatial resolution.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044307 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 167 - 187 Omar Ochoa; Aaron A. Velasco; Christian Servin; Vladik Kreinovich Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA interval uncertainty data fusion model fusion geosciences earth sciences earth structure. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 167 187 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44308 How, within a given budget, can we design a sensor network that would provide us with the largest amount of useful information? There are two important aspects to this question: (a) how to best distribute the sensors over the large area, i.e. how to best divide the area of interest into zones corresponding to different sensors, and (b) what is the best location of each sensor in the corresponding zone. There is some research on the first aspect to the problem. In this paper, we show that the second aspect can be naturally formalised as a particular case of a general problem of scale-invariant multi-criterion optimisation under uncertainty, and we provide a solution to this general problem. As an illustrative case study, we consider the selection of locations for the Eddy towers, an important micrometeorological instrument. Scale-invariant approach to multi-criterion optimisation under uncertainty, with applications to optimal sensor placement, in particular, to sensor placement in environmental research
Aline Jaimes; Craig Tweedie; Vladik Kreinovich; Martine Ceberio
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 188 - 203
How, within a given budget, can we design a sensor network that would provide us with the largest amount of useful information? There are two important aspects to this question: (a) how to best distribute the sensors over the large area, i.e. how to best divide the area of interest into zones corresponding to different sensors, and (b) what is the best location of each sensor in the corresponding zone. There is some research on the first aspect to the problem. In this paper, we show that the second aspect can be naturally formalised as a particular case of a general problem of scale-invariant multi-criterion optimisation under uncertainty, and we provide a solution to this general problem. As an illustrative case study, we consider the selection of locations for the Eddy towers, an important micrometeorological instrument.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044308 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 188 - 203 Aline Jaimes; Craig Tweedie; Vladik Kreinovich; Martine Ceberio Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA. ' Cyber-ShARE Center, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA multicriterion optimisation scale-invariance sensor placement uncertainty environmental research sensor networks Eddy towers micrometeorological instruments instrument location. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 188 203 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44312 This paper examines the possibilities of using Earth observation techniques and applicable capabilities for coupled analysis of risks. The techniques are concerned with sustaining the socio-ecological safety of river basins and coping with drastic losses of landscape and bio-productivity and natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as floods and pollution. The research aims to improve oriented policy making and assist robust ecological management strategies for the development of the Western Bug river basin in Ukraine. Ecosystem changes are critical for evaluating disasters and their consequences. Analysing landscape vulnerability is possible by using satellite data to detect plant changes and to monitor vegetation indexes coupled with ground data and ecosystem models. Socio-ecological safety towards natural and technological disasters: Earth observations and ecological monitoring for water quality analysis
Yuriy V. Kostyuchenko; Márton László; Maxim V. Yuschenko; Ivan Kopachevskyi; Yulia Bilous
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 204 - 224
This paper examines the possibilities of using Earth observation techniques and applicable capabilities for coupled analysis of risks. The techniques are concerned with sustaining the socio-ecological safety of river basins and coping with drastic losses of landscape and bio-productivity and natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as floods and pollution. The research aims to improve oriented policy making and assist robust ecological management strategies for the development of the Western Bug river basin in Ukraine. Ecosystem changes are critical for evaluating disasters and their consequences. Analysing landscape vulnerability is possible by using satellite data to detect plant changes and to monitor vegetation indexes coupled with ground data and ecosystem models.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044312 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 204 - 224 Yuriy V. Kostyuchenko; Márton László; Maxim V. Yuschenko; Ivan Kopachevskyi; Yulia Bilous Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchar Street, 01601 Kiev, Ukraine. ' Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Herman O. u. 15, H-1022 Budapest, Hungary. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchar Street, 01601 Kiev, Ukraine. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchar Street, 01601 Kiev, Ukraine. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchar Street, 01601 Kiev, Ukraine socio-ecological safety ecological monitoring Earth satellite observations risks scenarios water quality natural disasters technological disasters environmental pollution flooding ecological management. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 204 224 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44333 This paper describes the assessment of the consequences of technological disasters using varied approaches to data analysis. Satellite observation data are used in the context of integrated modelling of ecosystems to reduce the uncertainties of decision support inherent in the field of disaster mitigation measures. By using Earth observation data as the information with higher spatial integration, various pollution scenarios have been calculated taking into account the observed responses of ecosystems and expected evolution. Superposition analysis of vegetation and water indexes allows to identify biophysical disturbances, and the driving forces of ecosystem changes caused by external impact can be investigated. On the basis of scenarios obtained, the socio-ecological threats and deferred risks of different types of technological disasters have been identified with local natural and anthropogenic features. The calculated set of disaster scenarios allows to elaborate recommendations to narrow the methodological gaps in existing national emergency response services to reduce the uncertainties. Coupling of satellite observation to increase reliability of analysis of socio-ecological consequences of technological disasters
Yuriy V. Kostyuchenko; Ivan Kopachevsky; Dmytro Solovyov; Maxim V. Yuschenko; Yulia Bilous; Volodymyr Gunchenko
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 225 - 241
This paper describes the assessment of the consequences of technological disasters using varied approaches to data analysis. Satellite observation data are used in the context of integrated modelling of ecosystems to reduce the uncertainties of decision support inherent in the field of disaster mitigation measures. By using Earth observation data as the information with higher spatial integration, various pollution scenarios have been calculated taking into account the observed responses of ecosystems and expected evolution. Superposition analysis of vegetation and water indexes allows to identify biophysical disturbances, and the driving forces of ecosystem changes caused by external impact can be investigated. On the basis of scenarios obtained, the socio-ecological threats and deferred risks of different types of technological disasters have been identified with local natural and anthropogenic features. The calculated set of disaster scenarios allows to elaborate recommendations to narrow the methodological gaps in existing national emergency response services to reduce the uncertainties.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044333 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 225 - 241 Yuriy V. Kostyuchenko; Ivan Kopachevsky; Dmytro Solovyov; Maxim V. Yuschenko; Yulia Bilous; Volodymyr Gunchenko Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchara street, Kiev 01601, Ukraine. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchara street, Kiev 01601, Ukraine. ' Marine Hydrophysical Institute of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2, Kapitanskaya street, Sevastopol 99011, Ukraine. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchara street, Kiev 01601, Ukraine. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchara street, Kiev 01601, Ukraine. ' Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 55-b, O. Honchara street, Kiev 01601, Ukraine technological disasters socio-ecological risks landscape analysis Earth satellite observations vegetation indexes reliability data analysis ecosystems modelling decision support disaster mitigation environmental pollution water indexes biophysical disturbances emergency response emergency management disaster management. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 225 241 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44287 This paper is concerned with the numerical computation of the determinant of matrices. An algorithm for rigorously enclosing the determinant of a matrix is proposed, especially for extremely ill-conditioned cases. To achieve it, an accurate algorithm for inverse LU factorisation is used. Then accurate and verified results of the determinant can be efficiently obtained for a wide range of problems. An algorithm for computing the exact value of the determinant of an integer matrix is also proposed. Numerical results are presented showing the performance of the proposed algorithms. Accurate and verified numerical computation of the matrix determinant
Takeshi Ogita
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 242 - 254
This paper is concerned with the numerical computation of the determinant of matrices. An algorithm for rigorously enclosing the determinant of a matrix is proposed, especially for extremely ill-conditioned cases. To achieve it, an accurate algorithm for inverse LU factorisation is used. Then accurate and verified results of the determinant can be efficiently obtained for a wide range of problems. An algorithm for computing the exact value of the determinant of an integer matrix is also proposed. Numerical results are presented showing the performance of the proposed algorithms.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044287 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 242 - 254 Takeshi Ogita Division of Mathematical Sciences, School of Arts and Sciences, Tokyo Woman’s Christian University, 2-6-1 Zempukuji, Suginami-ku, Tokyo 167-8585, Japan matrix determinant verified numerical computation accurate numerical algorithm ill-conditioned matrices verification. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 242 254 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44305 Prefilter synthesis is one of the important design steps of Horowitz’s Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT) to robust feedback system synthesis. The prefilter is designed to achieve tracking specifications. A new, computationally efficient approach for automation of the prefilter design step is proposed. In the proposed approach, the prefilter design problem is posed as an Interval Constraint Satisfaction Problem (ICSP) and solved using established Interval Constraint Satisfaction Techniques (ICST). To validate the above design approach we apply the method to a benchmark problem as well as laboratory set-up of industrial plant emulator and obtain simple, low-order QFT prefilters. Implementation of fixed structure QFT prefilter synthesised using interval constraint satisfaction techniques
P.S.V. Nataraj; M.M. Deshpande
International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 255 - 281
Prefilter synthesis is one of the important design steps of Horowitz’s Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT) to robust feedback system synthesis. The prefilter is designed to achieve tracking specifications. A new, computationally efficient approach for automation of the prefilter design step is proposed. In the proposed approach, the prefilter design problem is posed as an Interval Constraint Satisfaction Problem (ICSP) and solved using established Interval Constraint Satisfaction Techniques (ICST). To validate the above design approach we apply the method to a benchmark problem as well as laboratory set-up of industrial plant emulator and obtain simple, low-order QFT prefilters.

]]> 10.1504/IJRS.2012.044305 International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Vol. 6, No. 1/2/3 (2012) pp. 255 - 281 P.S.V. Nataraj; M.M. Deshpande Systems and Control Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India. ' Department of Information Technology, A.C. Patil College of Engineering, Kharghar, Navi Mumbai 410 210, India interval analysis interval constraint satisfaction prefilter design robust control quantitative feedback theory electromechanical plant prefilter synthesis. 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00 6 1/2/3 255 281 2011-12-19T23:20:50-05:00