International Journal of Emergency Management (6 papers in press)

• An Experimental Investigation of Post-Earthquake Travel Behaviours: The Effects of Severity and Initial Location
  by D. Walton, S. Lamb 
  Abstract: A Computer-Aided Personal Interviewing survey containing 63-items examining post-earthquake travel behaviours was administered to 802 members of the general public. Earthquake simulation videos modelled a moderate and severe event (6.8 and 7.5 respectively on the Richter Scale) in an office and home setting. Travel movements were recorded over a simulated 48-hour period following the earthquake. Geographic Information System software was used to obtain trip origins and destinations, route taken, and trip distances. Information seeking was also examined. Results indicate that any event induces significant travel which is not simply to return home. While individually rational, collectively this behaviour is a form of collective social disorder. Mode choice varied with event severity and distance (walking preferred up to 3.25 km, then vehicles preferred). Well prepared emergency plans reduce the need to travel. The motivation to travel was affected by available information, and is discussed as a form of information seeking.
  Keywords: Travel; earthquake; response behaviours.
   
• Towards an integrated policy of risk management: A critical analysis of Turkey and France
  by Francois Mancebo, Irmak Renda-Tanali 
  Abstract: This paper discusses the background and issues surrounding Turkish disaster management policy. It also discusses the French experience, and provides a comparative analysis and a direction for future policy issues concerning both countries. French hazard risk management policies have evolved as a result of European Union (EU) land use, environmental,environmental and industrial safety directives. Consistent with Turkey’s efforts to join the EU, Turkish policymakers should consider French hazard risk management procedures and incorporate them to the degree that they apply to Turkey’s complex hazard management issues. In free societies, development of long-term strategies for creating sustainable urban environments requires political will and a buy in from the citizens. Current and future steps that are being taken towards integrating the Turkish society with the EU should include rehabilitation of the emergency management process as well. The French system, as presented in this paper, is based on principles of risk management that place as much emphasis on the front end (pre-disaster) as on the back end (post-disaster). Turkey should adopt this philosophy. However, the French system cannot be adopted wholesale, without a proper analysis which addresses the underlying societal, economic, and cultural context of the Turkish system.
  Keywords: hazard management, risk management, disaster management, emergency management, public policy, Turkey, France
   
• Returning to work after the big one: Predicting staff priorities in a dual role agency
  by K Smith, D Walton 
  Abstract: We outline a new application of social network analysis (SNA) in studying the return to work behaviour of 190 staff in a local government organisation after a hypothetical 6.8 magnitude earthquake scenario based in Wellington, New Zealand. Attitudes and interdependencies between individuals and departments were examined using questionnaires, SNA and multidimensional scaling. Overall responsibility in the organisation affected attitudes to returning most, while dependants had less effect than expected. Staff were also more motivated to return for their colleagues and the community, rather than economic or organisational reasons. Key staff and departments were determined and potential conflicts between internal and external functions of the organisation identified. Limitations are noted, however the methods used are presented as valuable tools to future emergency management research and business continuity planning.
  Keywords: return to work, staff behaviour, natural disaster, emergency management, business continuity, social network analysis, multidimensional scaling, local government
   
• Using tabletop exercises to learn about crisis management: Empirical evidence
  by Jerry Nilsson 
  Abstract: Tabletop exercises are often used for learning purposes in the area of crisis management, yet their potential for this was far from clear. The study examines the learning outcomes achieved by a group of persons taking part in tabletop exercises in which they assess the crisis management capabilities of the organization to which they belong and suggest possible improvements. Interviews held with the participants provide evidence of positive learning effects. Although the effects are in line with generally accepted normative principles of crisis management, the degree of understanding of it that participants gain appears to vary considerably. The underlying reasons for this are discussed.
  Keywords: Tabletop exercises; crisis management; simulations; learning; understanding; emergency management.
   
• Using Network Methodology to Define Emergency Response Team Location: The Brazilian Refinery Case Study.
  by Eduardo Calixto 
  Abstract: The main objective of this study is to define Emergency Response Team Location in a specific area based on the risk of refineries plants. The Center of Gravity and Haikini Network methodologies are two different approaches used to define the location in a network based on index values and distance between locations. These methodologies are different in regard to one basic concept concerning the possibility of defining critical locations in the network in the first case and their boundaries in the second case. The index in this case will be the frequency of hazardous events in each plant located in the network. The two methodologies will be implemented and the results will be assessed. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis will be carried out looking at specific elements such as alternative routes and population dislocation in the case of accidents. Furthermore, the real historical data and the usual data used in Brazil in hazardous event will be assessed to check the influence on final results. The third methodology, The Monte Carlo simulation will be carried out in order to check the emergency team availability, safety reliability and number of expected unwanted events to support the final decisions and to verify if the best location takes some influence in emergency attendance efficiency. The refinery case study will be carried out to define the Emergency Response Team location in a Brazilian refinery.
  Keywords: safety reliability, emergency team availability, haikini methodology, Gravity center methodology
   
• Evaluating the Seriousness of Disasters: an Empirical Study of Preferences
  by Henrik Hassel, Henrik Tehler, Marcus Abrahamsson 
  Abstract: In making societal decisions concerning hazards with potentially disastrous consequences it is important to have soundly based knowledge of how people evaluate the seriousness of disasters. In the present study a group of students evaluated the seriousness of disasters described in terms of four basic attributes (and their ranges): number of fatalities (0-1000), number of serious injuries (0-4000), economic loss (0-40 billion SEK), and cause of the disaster (natural, accidental, terrorism). Attribute weights were elicited by two separate methods, which taken together provides insight into the stability and the uncertainty of the weights elicited. Most participants regarded attributes related to physical harm, especially the number of fatalities, a finding that, however, must be seen in relation to the ranges of the attributes. In addition, the cause of a disaster also affected many of the participants’ judgments of its seriousness. The findings of this paper are of value to societal decision making, particularly in the case of projects of small to medium size in which specific elicitations of stakeholders’ values are rarely made.
  Keywords: Scenario evaluation, disaster seriousness, value elicitation, preferences.