International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (10 papers in press)

• Tackling challenges in infrastructure operation and control using multi-level and multi-agent control
  by Zofia Lukszo, Margot P.C. Weijnen, Rudy R. Negenborn, Bart De Schutter 
  Abstract: The need for improving the operation and control of infrastructure systems has created a demand for optimization and control methods applicable in the area of complex networked systems operated by a multitude of actors in a setting of decentralized decision making. This paper explores the applicability of multi-level optimization and multi-agent model predictive control in infrastructure system operation, and stresses their importance for capacity and system management in the energy and transport sectors.
  Keywords: infrastructure systems; multi-agent systems; optimization; model predictive control.
   
• Critical Infrastructures: a review from a Complex Systems perspective
  by Telli Van der Lei, Geertje Bekebrede, Igor Nikolic 
  Abstract: Critical infrastructures are complex systems that may be studied in large interdisciplinary teams. Interaction between researchers in these interdisciplinary teams can suffer from the lack of a shared view on the object of study or the meaning of words. To facilitate the understanding of complex infrastructure systems we review literature from different fields on complex systems. We create a three-layered framework that clarifies the relationships between the properties and the different levels of complex systems. We illustrate our framework with an example of a transportation system that shows how this complex system may be understood in terms of the framework.
  Keywords: Complex systems, interdisciplinary research, infrastructures, complex infrastructure systems
   
• Extensible Threat Taxonomy for Critical Infrastructures
  by Eric Luiijf, Albert Nieuwenhuijs 
  Abstract: The European Union sponsored project Vital Infrastructure Threats and Assurance (VITA) has the objective to explore and show new paths in critical infrastructure protection R&D. This paper describes one of VITA’s results: the idea and the development of a novel extensible and generic threat taxonomy for critical infrastructures. Over 300 threats have been categorised. The threat taxonomy makes a sharp distinction between threats, threat cause categories (nature, human, or both), and human intent. It is shown that the activism, sabotage and terror threats should be regarded as an expression of human intent combined with other, existing threats. The taxonomy helps to select in a balanced way all the all-hazard threats which may threaten existing critical infrastructures.
  Keywords: critical infrastructure, protection, threat, risk, taxonomy, activism, sabotage, terrorism, human intent
   
• Multi Criteria Decision Support for Business Continuity Planning in the Event of Critical Infrastructure Disruptions
  by Mirjam Merz, Michael Hiete, Dorothée Rostal, Valentin Bertsch 
  Abstract: Industrial production sites and modern interlaced supply chains may be severely damaged by external events, such as terror attacks or natural hazards. In this context, the interruption of critical infrastructures (CI) plays an important role. Especially, a disruption of electricity supply can cause physical damages and production downtimes, associated with substantial economic losses. Due to the tight interdependencies within the different CI sectors and the complex network structure of modern supply chains, these losses are (in most cases) not restricted to single companies and the occurring negative consequences might be propagated via cascading effect into far off supply chain links. In order to reduce the negative consequences, to speed up business recovery and to enhance the overall coping capacity of industrial production sites and global supply chains in the event of CI disruptions, many companies implemented Business Continuity Planning (BCP) programmes. Within this study, we assess the negative impacts of electricity supply interruptions within industry and introduce a quantitative method for BCP from the field of multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA).
  Keywords: critical infrastructures, business continuity planning, multi criteria decision analysis, supply chain disruptions, industrial crisis management
   
• ASSESSMENT OF INTERACTIONS IN A TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEM USING GRAPH NETWORKS
  by Nii Attoh-Okine, Olufikayo Aderinlewo 
  Abstract: This paper focuses on the effect the size of an infrastructure system network has on its level of performance when disrupted. The average shortest path distance forms the basic property by which this study is carried out since it also constitutes the basic unit around which the adjacency matrix is developed. In this paper, the main system studied comprises of critical infrastructures namely the highways and bridges in Newcastle County Delaware which is developed into a network using graph theory. Two case studies are analyzed, each selected from two different regions of the county, under the effect of two node removal strategies representing real life disruptions of natural and intentional attack. Based on Spearman’s rank correlation and the calculated average shortest path distances, it was shown that the smaller the size of a network the shorter are the path lengths and the more efficient is the system. Other properties that were considered apart from the average shortest path distances include the network density, average vertex degree, clustering coefficient, node betweenness, link betweenness, network connectivity to determine whether they showed a direct relationship to the efficiency. Only the average shortest path distances and the betweenness centralities showed a direct relationship to the network efficiency. However, this work investigates how the presence of short path distances in a system network affects its performance and thereafter develops working equations for computing the efficiency using regression equations.
  Keywords: Infrastructure systems, adjacency matrix, Spearman’s rank correlation, regression equations
   
• Using Situational Simulations to Support Decision Making in Co-dependent Infrastructure Systems
  by Amlan Mukherjee, Dana Johnson, Yongliang Jin, Roger Kieckhafer 
  Abstract: In this paper we introduce an integrative network based approach to modelling co-dependent infrastructure systems and simulating them within the general purpose framework of situational simulations. We introduced and discussed the underlying mathematical model of the simulation, and also discussed typical information that will drive it - specifically considering the case of the City of Houghton, MIchigan, in the United States. We also implemented the situational simulation using a proposed process model and the information model, thus providing a prototypical product interface. The simulation is interactive and it allows decision-makers to account for complex adaptive interactions among co-dependent infrastructure systems and, to account for non-linear feedbacks and counter-intuitive behavior. The significance of this research is two fold: (i) It provides an underlying model to represent and reason about co-dependent infrastructure systems and (ii) it implements the model within the general purpose framework of situational simulations that can be used by public infrastructure emergency management agencies to test crisis management strategies, assess risk, and specifically identify and prepare for events that expose system vulnerabilities. This paper seeds an agenda for interdisciplinary future research with the ultimate goal of developing products that enhance decision-making in managing co-dependent infrastructure systems.
  Keywords: Situational simulations, critical infrastructure systems, co-dependence, multidisciplinary
   
• Understanding Critical Infrastructure Failure: Examining the experience of Biloxi and Gulfport, Mississippi after Hurricane Katrina
  by David M. Simpson, Thomas Rockaway, Carrie Beth Lasley, Terry Weigel 
  Abstract: This article examines disaster recovery and resilience issues following a major hurricane. Two coastal communities were chosen for study following Hurricane Katrina in order to explore the issues in measuring and evaluating recovery and resilience. The communities were Biloxi and Gulfport, Mississippi. A mix of data sources were employed to determine effects on critical infrastructure at a community-wide scale. The data sources included key informant interviews, GIS data, and secondary data such as newspaper reports, city financial statements, and similar documents. The key findings indicate a methodological problem with the formulation of recovery and resilience curves as discussed in other literature. While information regarding a particular community can be mapped, its characteristics are unique and difficult to generalize to other communities. While this issue is not necessarily new to the area of hazards research, it adds weight to the argument that more should be done to collect post event data that can be analyzed in a cross comparative way with other communities. Recommendations include the establishment of a “data archivist” position that would be co-located in an EOC, and the development of standardized measurement sets that all disaster affected communities would gather post event. Finally, specific recommendations for further research are offered.
  Keywords: Infrastructure; disaster; critical; systems; community; recovery; Hurricane; Katrina
   
• A Structured Approach to Identifying European Critical Infrastructures
  by Carmelo Di Mauro, Sara Bouchon, Christiaan Logtmeijer, Jean Pierre Nordvik, Russell Pride, Thomas Hartung 
  Abstract: Our increasingly complex and interconnected societies are continuously exposed to a wide range of risks. Infrastructure systems are subject to functional impairments associated with technological failure, natural threats and intentional malicious acts. The adequate functioning of infrastructures is crucially sustaining our societal and economical activity. Therefore, the protection of infrastructures becomes more and more an important issue for the policy-makers. This paper reports the experience gained during preparatory studies carried out by the Joint Research Centre to support the European Commission and Member States on the definition of criteria for the identification of critical infrastructures. The existing methods for identifying the critical infrastructures are mainly based on risk analysis techniques. These approaches were found to be insufficient and need to be complemented with socio-economic evaluations of potential impacts. This paper highlights the contribution of stakeholders and decision-makers in the process of definition and identification of critical infrastructures because the concept of criticality is deeply rooted in socio-political acceptance.
  Keywords: European Critical Infrastructure, critical infrastructure identification, critical infrastructure criteria, decision-making support
   
• Examining Metrics and Methods for Determining Critical Facility System Effectiveness
  by Patrick Hester, Kevin Adams, Sankaran Mahadevan 
  Abstract: Approaches for quantifying security system performance vary for different critical facilities, ranging from in-depth quantitative analysis to heuristics-based rules of thumb. Since there is no single accepted definition for what constitutes an effective security system for a critical facility and how best to design and analyze these systems, this technical note is a survey of potential metrics and methods for critical facility system effectiveness. Recommendations are made for which metric is best suited for critical facility system effectiveness and a new method is recommended for evaluating system effectiveness.
  Keywords: Facility protection; system effectiveness; critical infrastructure
   
• Advanced Trust Negotiations in Critical Infrastructures
  by Igor Nai Fovino, Alberto Trombetta, Stefano Braghin 
  Abstract: Modern critical infrastructures (Power grids, Power plants, gas and oil pipelines etc.) are nowadays strongly interconnected at national and international level. The failure of one of them can originate cascading effects which might have serious and disastrous impact on others, even geographically far, infrastructures. The exchange of informations about vulnerabilities, threats, countermeasures among the different actors of such interleaved systems assumes a not negligible role in the prevention of continental disasters. Due to their intrinsic nature, such information has to be considered strongly confidential and sensitive. Coping with the need of information sharing preserving confidentiality according to some criteria, is a big obstacle in the creation of effective critical infrastructure information sharing networks. In this paper we present an extension of the well known Trust-X negotiation framework, which allows to address the confidentiality problem in the context of information sharing for critical infrastructures.
  Keywords: Trust negotiation; Critical Infrastructure; Information sharing; Access Control Policy