Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marina Vlasova Author-X-Name-First: Marina Author-X-Name-Last: Vlasova Author-Name: Inna Kruglova Author-X-Name-First: Inna Author-X-Name-Last: Kruglova Author-Name: Andrey Khlutkov Author-X-Name-First: Andrey Author-X-Name-Last: Khlutkov Author-Name: Olga Stepchenkova Author-X-Name-First: Olga Author-X-Name-Last: Stepchenkova Title: Predictive modelling of economic safety on the example of ecosystem of small and medium-sized business Abstract: The article examines the problems of monitoring the activities of small and medium-sized businesses in the framework of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation. The lack of economic information on the activities of small and medium-sized businesses hinders a competent assessment of the effectiveness of state support programs for business and the development of entrepreneurial ecosystems. The authors propose to use methods of predictive modelling to improve the economic security of the state and create effective innovative business ecosystems. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 4-13 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: economic security; predictive modelling; small and medium business; entrepreneurial ecosystem; economic safety; security management; security monitoring; economic threat; big data. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106160 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:4-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maria Sigova Author-X-Name-First: Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Sigova Author-Name: Igor Klyuchnikov Author-X-Name-First: Igor Author-X-Name-Last: Klyuchnikov Author-Name: Sergey Vasilev Author-X-Name-First: Sergey Author-X-Name-Last: Vasilev Author-Name: Anna Zatevakhina Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Zatevakhina Title: The impact of the digitisation of the financial industry on the modelling and pricing of financial assets Abstract: Digital financial services continue to expand and replace the delivery of traditional financial services to the customers. The purpose of the study is twofold. First, to consider the growing interest in price modelling for financial assets. The second goal is to trace the role of digitisation in finance on changes in the methodology of both modelling and pricing of financial assets. Digitisation automates financial products and services, as a result of which the quality of financial services is increasing, the set of offers is expanding, and the financial markets are growing numerically. The transformation of finance to 'digit' allows us to provide a real basis for the widespread introduction of Bayesian methods of modelling and valuation of financial assets. The article introduces preliminary premises for the demarcation of classical and digital finance, as well as traditional and new methods of pricing and predictive modelling in connection with the wide implementation of 'big data' and 'digit'. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 14-26 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: digital finance; financial modelling; methodology; Bayesian method in finance; pricing. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106161 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:14-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eugene Solozhentsev Author-X-Name-First: Eugene Author-X-Name-Last: Solozhentsev Author-Name: Ekaterina Karaseva Author-X-Name-First: Ekaterina Author-X-Name-Last: Karaseva Title: Data structures, logical-probabilistic models and digital management of the safety and quality of systems in the economics Abstract: In this paper we are considering data structures in economic systems. These structures can be used to construct logical-probabilistic risk models intended for digital management of safety and quality of systems. Transformation of any database into a system of logical equations is described, which is the basis for constructing logical-probabilistic models of safety or quality. We give examples how the database is used to construct models of the credit risk in banks and the risk and efficiency of restaurants. Also we present examples of using complex structure data to construct a model for management of a country's innovation system quality and simple structure data for construction of a model for assessment of the failure risk for one innovation. The special software 'Arbiter' and 'Expa' for management in economics are described. The term 'digital management' is defined and computer network components for digital management of systems in economics are given. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 27-53 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: data structure; social and economic systems; logical-probabilistic risk models; safety; quality; efficiency. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106162 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:27-53 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eugene Solozhentsev Author-X-Name-First: Eugene Author-X-Name-Last: Solozhentsev Author-Name: Vasily Karasev Author-X-Name-First: Vasily Author-X-Name-Last: Karasev Title: The digital management of structural complex systems in economics Abstract: As a result of the analysis, we establish throughout the world - there is a critical situation in economic management. A way out of the critical situation, based on new knowledge, solving new tasks and event-based digital management of structural complex systems in economics, is proposed. The new objects in management of economics are chosen: public authorities, socio-economic systems, processes of quality management of the socio-economic life of a person, safe living space. The management criteria are safety and quality of objects and systems. The new knowledge for management in economics is introduced: new types of Boolean event-propositions, risk scenarios for system failure, new types of logical and probabilistic risk models. We propose to solve the following new tasks in economics: modelling, analysis and management of one system and a group of logically unified systems (models); management of the State and development of systems; quality assessment of control systems. The special software for event-related managing economics is described. The content of the training course of additional education for economists and teachers is given. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 54-79 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: digital management; event-related management; structurally complex systems; government departments; economics; business; the safe space of mankind; knowledge; logical-probabilistic models; safety criterion; quality criterion. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106163 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:54-79 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maria Bakumenko Author-X-Name-First: Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Bakumenko Author-Name: Anatoliy Sigal Author-X-Name-First: Anatoliy Author-X-Name-Last: Sigal Title: Concerning evaluation of ethics impact on national economy's competitiveness Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the impact of the ethical behaviour of firms on a national economy's competitiveness, based on data given in Global Competitiveness Reports. The firm is a complex open dynamic socio-economic system. Firms' sustainable development is impossible without a good reputation. In its decision making, the firm must comply with the code of ethics. The introduction of new technologies and innovations can result in extra risks and threats for the firm's external environment. Firms shall do no harm to their external environment. The firm's ethical behaviour contributes to preservation of its competitiveness and, accordingly, to its safety. The research paper constructs several models (linear equations) of dependence between the ethical behaviour of firms and the Global Competitiveness Index. We checked the constructed models for adequacy using an F-test. Our findings testify to a rather strong impact of the ethical behaviour of firms on national economies' competitiveness globally. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 80-105 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: firm; complex system; ethics; evaluation; corporate reputation; corporate safety; competitiveness; sustainable development; national economy; advanced technologies; risk; threat; decision making; firm’s ethical behaviour; EBF; Global Competitiveness Index; GCI. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106164 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:80-105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dmitry Ivanov Author-X-Name-First: Dmitry Author-X-Name-Last: Ivanov Author-Name: Boris Sokolov Author-X-Name-First: Boris Author-X-Name-Last: Sokolov Author-Name: Elena Serova Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Serova Author-Name: Rafael Yusupov Author-X-Name-First: Rafael Author-X-Name-Last: Yusupov Title: Combined approach to the complex objects control and stability analysis of management decisions Abstract: The main problems and features of combined approach to the complex objects control and management stability analysis are investigated in the paper. Analytical-simulation scenarios and scenarios of intelligent models and systems execution for complex objects control and management stability analysis are given. The paper describes a particular group of models and modelling systems - hybrid intelligent models and systems that allow in conditions of uncertainty, incomplete initial data and complex interdependence between elements of complex objects to evaluate the implications of realization of various scenarios and risk evaluation. The investigations have shown successful possibility of risks evaluation by the combined implementation of the analytical-simulation models and algorithms, and ANFIS method - the method of hybrid neural-fuzzy modelling. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 106-118 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: stability analysis; risk management; management decision; combined approach; complex objects; coordination of models; simulation systems; fuzzy logic; neural networks; hybrid modelling; ANFIS method. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106175 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:106-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alexander Denev Author-X-Name-First: Alexander Author-X-Name-Last: Denev Author-Name: Adrien Papaioannou Author-X-Name-First: Adrien Author-X-Name-Last: Papaioannou Author-Name: Orazio Angelini Author-X-Name-First: Orazio Author-X-Name-Last: Angelini Title: A probabilistic graphical models approach to model interconnectedness Abstract: In this paper, we show that using multiple models when executing a specific task almost unavoidably gives rise to interaction between them, especially when their number is large. We show that this interaction can lead to biased and incomplete results if treated inappropriately (which we believe is the current standard in the financial industry). We propose the use of probabilistic graphical models – a technique widely used in machine learning and expert systems as a remedy to this problem. We discuss some numerical aspects of our approach that will be present in any practical implementation. We then examine, in detail, a practical example of using this method in a stress testing context. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 119-133 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: probabilistic graphical models; model interconnectedness; stress testing; machine learning. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106963 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:2:p:119-133 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ange-Hélène Yebga Hot Author-X-Name-First: Ange-Hélène Yebga Author-X-Name-Last: Hot Author-Name: Toualy Serge Thibaut Ouina Author-X-Name-First: Toualy Serge Thibaut Author-X-Name-Last: Ouina Author-Name: Marie-Pierre Baudin-Maurin Author-X-Name-First: Marie-Pierre Author-X-Name-Last: Baudin-Maurin Author-Name: Marina Koussemon Author-X-Name-First: Marina Author-X-Name-Last: Koussemon Author-Name: Jean Michel Panoff Author-X-Name-First: Jean Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Panoff Title: Binary approaches to biological risks Abstract: Concerning biological risks, European Union and Governments policies mainly rely on two scientific classifications (2000/54/EC; 2009/41/EC). However, recent health concerns (e.g., avian flu epidemic) and environmental damages (e.g., GMOs) have questioned the limitations of those categorisations, stressing the need for accurate tools to assess and manage biological risks. The aim of this study is to provide an original analysis of the biological risks, beyond the common categorisations, taking into account, by using binary approaches, the biological risks diversity. This research work has non-exhaustively identified ten couples, namely microbiology/macrobiology, natural/provoked risks, naturally pathogen biological agents/genetically modified organisms, indigenous/invasive states, health/environment, primary target/collateral consequences, synthetic/natural biology, exobiology/endobiology, proven/potential risks and assessment/management. This present study will likely be useful to improve the decision-making process regarding the biological risks. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 134-148 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: biological risk; biology; risk; hazard; assessment; management. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106970 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:2:p:134-148 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S.W.S.B. Dasanayaka Author-X-Name-First: S.W.S.B. Author-X-Name-Last: Dasanayaka Author-Name: W. Jayarathna Author-X-Name-First: W. Author-X-Name-Last: Jayarathna Author-Name: Omar Al Serhan Author-X-Name-First: Omar Al Author-X-Name-Last: Serhan Author-Name: Kimberly Gleason Author-X-Name-First: Kimberly Author-X-Name-Last: Gleason Title: Recovery from natural disaster: a study on tsunami-affected micro, small and medium enterprises in Galle and Matara districts in Sri Lanka Abstract: The main objective of this study is to show recovery and re-establishment of tsunami-affected micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Galle and Matara districts in Sri Lanka. The primary and secondary data and information for this study were obtained from available literature, websites and publications, sample surveys and interviews. Results showed that the needs of tsunami-affected MSMEs were ignored and that there were many governance-related problems in the recovery process in both districts. Further, the rate of business recovery is around 62%. Due to the large scale of the disaster, its wide geographical spreads, and involvement of large number of agents, institutions and parties involved in the distribution of benefits and in the recovery process, it is hard assign blame to any single entity regarding accountability of government or other institutions for their conduct and performance in the recovery process. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 149-168 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: tsunami; natural disasters; economic recovery; micro, small and medium enterprises; MSMEs; governance; Sri Lanka. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106972 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:2:p:149-168 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Lundgren Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Lundgren Title: Rethinking capabilities in information security risk management: a systematic literature review Abstract: Information security risk management capabilities have predominantly focused on instrumental onsets, while largely ignoring the underlying intentions and knowledge these management practices entail. This article aims to study what capabilities are embedded in information security risk management. A theoretical framework is proposed, namely rethinking capability as the alignment between intent and knowing. The framework is situated around four general risk management practices. A systematic literature review utilising the framework was conducted, resulting in the identification of eight identified capabilities. These capabilities were grouped into respective practices: integrating various perspectives and values to reach a risk perception aligned with the intended outcome (identify); adapting to varying perspectives of risks and prioritising them in accordance with the intended outcome (prioritise); security controls to enable resources, and integrate/reconfigure beliefs held by various stakeholders (implement); and sustaining the integrated resources and competences held by stakeholders to continue the alignment with the intended outcome (monitor). Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 169-190 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: information security; risk management; capability; intent; knowing. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106978 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:2:p:169-190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rodrigo Martins Moreira Author-X-Name-First: Rodrigo Martins Author-X-Name-Last: Moreira Author-Name: Cleiton Oliveira Dos Santos Author-X-Name-First: Cleiton Oliveira Dos Author-X-Name-Last: Santos Title: Flood risk assessment and management for urban areas in Brazilian Pantanal using free and open source GIS software Abstract: The present work provides city managers a tool to strategically deploy a flood risk assessment and management, with statistical, technological and graphical approaches. For risk assessment, the return period of the years between 1977 and 2017 was analysed, comprising a historical series of 40 years of maximum quotas and maximum flows. Researchers used the QuantumGis 2.18 platform to deploy flood risk mapping. Maps with flood risk levels within the urban area of study are presented, built as 3D models. The calculation of the return period estimation for flood risk is a reliable tool to understand the dynamics of a water body inserted in an urban area. Thus, it is possible to deploy scenarios with statistical background to aid decision making with regard to risk assessment. Technology-based information is key to support decision making, helping cities to raise funds to deploy risk management actions. The use of a free and open source GIS software such as QuantumGis presents a low cost, efficient and interface-friendly platform to solve flood management issues. Journal: Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Pages: 191-206 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2020 Keywords: flood; risk; management; geoprocessing; pantanal; urban areas; free and open source GIS; return period; 3D modelling; digital elevation model; DEM; remote sensing; decision making; urban watersheds; hydrology; hydrological modelling; rainfall. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=106982 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijram:v:23:y:2020:i:2:p:191-206