Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lucio Morettini Author-X-Name-First: Lucio Author-X-Name-Last: Morettini Author-Name: Emilia Primeri Author-X-Name-First: Emilia Author-X-Name-Last: Primeri Author-Name: Emanuela Reale Author-X-Name-First: Emanuela Author-X-Name-Last: Reale Author-Name: Antonio Zinilli Author-X-Name-First: Antonio Author-X-Name-Last: Zinilli Title: Career mobility of PhD holders in social sciences and humanities: evidences from the POCARIM project Abstract: The paper aims at investigating factors that could affect the likelihood of changing job of PhD holders in the fields of social sciences and humanities (SSH). We use data collected through a survey developed within the POCARIM project (funded by the EC under the EUFP7) in order to analyse variations in PhDs' career paths in a longitudinal dimension: we consider the career of each agent as a whole and investigate what elements related to individual features can influence career's entropy in terms of changes of sector and/or country. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 138-152 Issue: 1/2 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: career mobility; PhD; job market; higher education; career paths. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=97792 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:1/2:p:138-152 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Prause Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Prause Author-Name: Christina Günther Author-X-Name-First: Christina Author-X-Name-Last: Günther Title: Technology diffusion of Industry 4.0: an agent-based approach Abstract: Governmental interventions, such as public policies and programs, play a vital role in innovation diffusion, particularly if the application area is heterogeneous, like the German federal high-tech approach of Industry 4.0. Interventions can thus inhibit market failure and negative externalities or disseminate the technology and promote positive externalities. To analyse the impact of governmental intervention, considering the particularities of the Industry 4.0 approach, an agent-based model (ABM) is proposed, particularly to test the sensitivity of Industry 4.0 innovation diffusion speed and degree due to interventions such as promotion, educational support, technology networks (hubs), technology standardisation, and financial aid among manufacturing small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in Germany. This paper describes a conceptual model structured along the overview, design concept, and details framework. Grounding and calibration of input parameters and agent behaviour are based on firm characteristics and adoption determinants (technology-organisation-environment model) from survey data and Industry 4.0 case studies. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 29-48 Issue: 1/2 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: ABM; agent-based model; Industry 4.0; innovation diffusion; SME; small and medium size enterprise; technology adoption. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=97793 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:1/2:p:29-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bilel Ammouri Author-X-Name-First: Bilel Author-X-Name-Last: Ammouri Author-Name: Hassen Toumi Author-X-Name-First: Hassen Author-X-Name-Last: Toumi Author-Name: Fakhri Issaoui Author-X-Name-First: Fakhri Author-X-Name-Last: Issaoui Author-Name: Habib Zitouna Author-X-Name-First: Habib Author-X-Name-Last: Zitouna Title: Forecasting inflation in Tunisia during instability using dynamic factors model: a two-step based procedure based on Kalman filter Abstract: This work presents a forecasting inflation model using a monthly database. The model has to take into account a large amount of information, is the goal of recent research in various industrialised countries as well as developing ones. With the dynamic factors model (DFM), the forecast values are closer to the actual inflation than those obtained from the conventional models in the short term. In our research, we devise the inflation into 'free and administered' and test the performance of the DFM under instability in different types of inflation (core and trend). Knowing that periods of instability are simultaneously the period of price liberalisation of basic goods (2008) and the post-revolution (the Arabic spring) period (2011-2014). We have found that the DFM with an instability factor leads to substantial forecasting improvements over the DFM without an instability factor in the period after the revolution. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 49-83 Issue: 1/2 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: inflation forecasting; PCA; principal component analysis; VAR; vector autoregressive; DFM; dynamic factors model; Kalman filter; space-state; instability factor. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=97794 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:1/2:p:49-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eleftherios Giovanis Author-X-Name-First: Eleftherios Author-X-Name-Last: Giovanis Title: Do the flexible employment arrangements increase job satisfaction and employee loyalty? Evidence from Bayesian networks and instrumental variables Abstract: This study explores the relationship between job satisfaction, employee loyalty and two types of flexible employment arrangements; teleworking and flexible timing. The analysis relies on data derived from the workplace employment relations survey (WERS) in 2004 and 2011. We apply the propensity score matching approach and least squares regressions. Furthermore, we employ the Bayesian networks (BN) and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to confirm the causality between employment types explored and the outcomes of interest. Additionally, we propose an instrumental variables (IV) approach based on the BN framework. The results support that a positive causal effect from these employment arrangements on job satisfaction and employee loyalty is present. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 84-115 Issue: 1/2 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: BN; Bayesian networks; DAGs; directed acyclic graphs; employee loyalty; employment arrangements; flexible timing; job satisfaction; teleworking; WERS; workplace employment relations survey. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=97795 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:1/2:p:84-115 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Talel Boufateh Author-X-Name-First: Talel Author-X-Name-Last: Boufateh Title: On the validity of exclusion restrictions in the structural multivariate framework: a Monte Carlo simulation Abstract: This paper aims to examine the validity of identifying restrictions used in the structural multivariate models. Whether we are under short-term and/or long-term identification approach, additional restrictions must be imposed and usually take the form of exclusion restrictions. We believe, however, that the value of a restriction is not necessarily equal to zero even if it expresses the lack of impact of a shock on a variable. Such a lack of impact could reflect an effect asymptotically equal to zero and the little nuance could be amplified with the model dynamics. To do, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to examine the consequences of slipping of the identification restriction value. The results confirm the sensitivity of variables' responses to change in the value of identification restrictions. Whatever the strength and elegance of the theory and the economic reasoning from which emanate the exclusion restrictions, precision measurements should be considered. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 116-137 Issue: 1/2 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: exclusion restrictions; SVAR approach; Monte Carlo Simulation. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=97796 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:1/2:p:116-137 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carolina Facioni Author-X-Name-First: Carolina Author-X-Name-Last: Facioni Author-Name: Isabella Corazziari Author-X-Name-First: Isabella Author-X-Name-Last: Corazziari Author-Name: Filomena Maggino Author-X-Name-First: Filomena Author-X-Name-Last: Maggino Title: Measuring uncertainties: a theoretical approach Abstract: When our aim is to draw the possible developments of future events, we are faced with a practical obstacle. Indeed, we cannot have any empirical experience of the future. Have we, therefore, to be inferred that forecasting, exploring future or, better: exploring futures, or anticipating futures have not to be considered activities of a scientific kind? Answer to such a difficult question requires a multidisciplinary approach, where statistical models, methodology of social science and of course statistics and sociology as a whole - are enhanced in their ability to express the change - and sometimes the risk that the change itself implies. A great help in understanding complexity, and trends, comes from a method for multi-way data, based on the joint application of a factorial analysis and regression over time, called dynamic factor analysis (DFA). Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 5-28 Issue: 1/2 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: uncertainty measure; futures studies; DFA; dynamic factor analysis. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=97797 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:1/2:p:5-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Torsten Heinrich Author-X-Name-First: Torsten Author-X-Name-Last: Heinrich Author-Name: Claudius Gräbner Author-X-Name-First: Claudius Author-X-Name-Last: Gräbner Title: Beyond equilibrium: revisiting two-sided markets from an agent-based modelling perspective Abstract: Two-sided markets are an important aspect of today's economies. Yet, the attention they have received in economic theory is limited, mainly due to methodological constraints of conventional approaches: Two-sided markets often exhibit non-trivial dynamics that are difficult to describe via analytical equilibrium models. We illustrate this point by revisiting a well-known equilibrium model of two-sided markets by Rochet and Tirole from an agent-based computational perspective. We identify several inconsistencies as well as implicit and implausible assumptions of the original model. These limit its explanatory power and motivate an alternative approach. The agent-based model we propose allows us to study two-sided markets in a more realistic and adequate manner: Not only are we able to compare different decision-making rules for the providers, we can also study situations with more than two providers. Thus, our model represents a first step towards a more realistic and policy-relevant study of two-sided markets. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 153-180 Issue: 3 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: two-sided markets; network externalities; agent-based modelling; simulation; heuristic decision making; reinforcement learning; satisficing; differential evolution; evolutionary economics; market structure; IT economics; equilibrium dynamics. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=100558 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:3:p:153-180 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah Author-X-Name-First: Franklin Author-X-Name-Last: Amuakwa-Mensah Author-Name: Victoria Nyarkoah Sam Author-X-Name-First: Victoria Nyarkoah Author-X-Name-Last: Sam Author-Name: Evelyne Nyathira Kihiu Author-X-Name-First: Evelyne Nyathira Author-X-Name-Last: Kihiu Title: Gender dimension of migration decisions in Ghana: the reinforcing role of anticipated welfare of climatic effect Abstract: The concept of migration has been a male phenomenon in time past, however, there has been a change in events as females are gradually gaining dominance in migration patterns in recent times. Using nationwide survey data this paper investigates the determinants of internal migration decisions for males and females in Ghana. We examined whether there is any significant differences in how climate elements together with anticipated welfare gains and socio-economic factors explain internal migration decision of males and females. We find some variations in the determinants of migration decisions for males and female, though these decisions are significantly affected by anticipated welfare gain, socio-economic factors and climate conditions. We observed that females respond more to climate or environmental elements than males. Moreover, the effect of climate on migration decisions for both males and females is reinforced by anticipated welfare gain. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 181-201 Issue: 3 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: climate; environment; males; females; migration; Heckman two-stage; Ghana. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=100559 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:3:p:181-201 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hanène Mejdoub Author-X-Name-First: Hanène Author-X-Name-Last: Mejdoub Author-Name: Mounira Ben Arab Author-X-Name-First: Mounira Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Arab Title: Insurance risk capital and risk aggregation: bivariate copula approach Abstract: This paper discusses the risk aggregation issue in the sphere of the non-life insurance industry. In this context, we attempt to investigate the impact of the dependence structure among losses using copula theory, on the total risk capital estimation measured by the value-at-risk (VaR). First, using numerical illustrations based on a Tunisian insurance company, we apply various copula families that can capture the dependencies across losses that are derived from four lines of business. Then, based on the Monte-Carlo simulation, the total risk capital is deduced by applying VaR on the aggregate loss distributions. We also conduct a comparative analysis between the various types of the copulas. Our findings reveal that there is a regular impact on the capital requirement estimation indicating that a static approach ignoring the real dependencies between different risks can systematically lead to an overestimation of the total capital requirement. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 202-218 Issue: 3 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: non-life insurance; risk aggregation; VaR; value-at-risk; dependence structure; bivariate copulas; Monte-Carlo simulation. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=100560 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:3:p:202-218 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stavros Degiannakis Author-X-Name-First: Stavros Author-X-Name-Last: Degiannakis Author-Name: George Giannopoulos Author-X-Name-First: George Author-X-Name-Last: Giannopoulos Author-Name: Salma Ibrahim Author-X-Name-First: Salma Author-X-Name-Last: Ibrahim Author-Name: Ivana Rozic Author-X-Name-First: Ivana Author-X-Name-Last: Rozic Title: Earnings management to avoid losses and earnings declines in Croatia Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence that Croatian companies manage reported earnings to avoid losses and earnings declines. Specifically, we find that the cross-sectional distribution of scaled earnings and changes in earnings show high frequencies of small positive earnings and small increases in earnings while the frequencies of small losses and small decreases in earnings are less frequent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these discontinuities are likely due to discretionary accruals. We examine the frequency distribution of reported earnings after removing discretionary accruals and find that the cross-sectional distributions of non-discretionary scaled earnings show lower frequencies of small positive earnings and higher frequencies of small negative earnings. Additionally, the cross-sectional distribution of non-discretionary change in earnings demonstrates mixed frequencies of non-discretionary changes in earnings. Overall, this paper adds new empirical evidence to the benchmark-beating literature by demonstrating international evidence of earnings management around zero earnings and zero earnings changes benchmarks. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 219-238 Issue: 3 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: earnings management; earnings declines; earnings losses; discretionary accruals; earnings frequency distribution. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=100561 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:3:p:219-238 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carlos Encinas-Ferrer Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Author-X-Name-Last: Encinas-Ferrer Author-Name: Eddie Villegas-Zermeño Author-X-Name-First: Eddie Author-X-Name-Last: Villegas-Zermeño Title: Reconsidering the relationship between foreign direct investment and growth Abstract: It has been assumed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a variable that explains economic growth (EG). As investment (I) is the dynamic element of gross domestic product (GDP), therefore, FDI, as part of total investment, should be also the independent variable and GDP growth the dependent one. However, many studies in many countries have shown the contrary, there is not such a causal relationship between FDI and GDP. In our investigation, we include the study of the cases of Mexico, China, Brazil and the Republic of Korea. It is our hypothesis that there is not a causal relationship between FDI, as the independent variable, and GDP growth as the dependent one in the selected countries and that this is in part because FDI is a small proportion of total (national and foreign) direct investment and so its impact is reduced. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 240-267 Issue: 4 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: FDI; foreign direct investment; GDP; gross domestic product; economic growth; gross fixed capital formation. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=102492 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:4:p:240-267 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pavlos Stamatiou Author-X-Name-First: Pavlos Author-X-Name-Last: Stamatiou Author-Name: Nikolaos Dritsakis Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos Author-X-Name-Last: Dritsakis Title: Causality among CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Italy Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB> emissions (carbon dioxide emissions), energy consumption and economic growth in Italy, using annual data covering the period 1960-2011. The unit root tests results indicated that the variables are not stationary in levels but in their first differences. Subsequently, the Johansen cointegration test showed that there is a cointegrated vector between the examined variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) is used in order to find the causality relations among the variables. The empirical results of the study revealed that both in the short and long run there is a strong unidirectional causality relation between economic growth and CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB>emissions with direction from economic growth to CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB> emissions. Finally, the impulse response functions indicated that a reduction in CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB> emissions has a positive effect on energy consumption, while it causes a decrease in economic growth. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 268-286 Issue: 4 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: carbon emissions; energy consumption; economic growth; environmental Kuznets curve; cointegration test; vector error correction; causality; variance decomposition; impulse response analysis; Italy. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=102509 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:4:p:268-286 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yi Wang Author-X-Name-First: Yi Author-X-Name-Last: Wang Author-Name: Peng Zhou Author-X-Name-First: Peng Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou Title: The public sector wage premium puzzle Abstract: This paper investigates the public sector wage premium in the UK over the first decade of the 21st century using both econometric and economic modelling methods. A comprehensive literature review is conducted to summarise the four popular types of methods adopted by the traditional microeconometric studies. Application of these methods results in an estimated public sector wage premium equal to 6.5%. Indirect inference is then introduced as a new method of testing and estimating a microfounded economic model. All four types of econometric methods can be used as auxiliary models to summarise the data features, based on which the distance between the actual data and the model-simulated data is assessed. The selection bias can also be tested in a straightforward way under indirect inference. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 287-307 Issue: 4 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: public sector wage premium; microfoundation; propensity score matching; indirect inference. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=102511 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:4:p:287-307 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joanna Olbrys Author-X-Name-First: Joanna Author-X-Name-Last: Olbrys Author-Name: Michal Mursztyn Author-X-Name-First: Michal Author-X-Name-Last: Mursztyn Title: Depth, tightness and resiliency as market liquidity dimensions: evidence from the Polish stock market Abstract: The aim of this paper is an empirical analysis of market liquidity dimensions on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). We investigate market depth, tightness, and resiliency for 53 companies divided into three size groups. The high-frequency data covers the period January 2005 - June 2015. The additional goal is a robustness analysis of the results with respect to the whole sample period and three adjacent subsamples: pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. Order ratio (OR) is employed as a proxy of market depth. Market tightness is approximated by using relative spread (RS). Market resiliency is estimated by utilising realised spread (RealS). The empirical results indicate that OR values do not depend on a firm size, while RS estimations are slightly higher for small companies. RealS proxy values are positive for almost all stocks. Moreover, the results turn out to be robust to the choice of the sample for all groups of assets. Journal: Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pages: 308-326 Issue: 4 Volume: 9 Year: 2019 Keywords: dimensions of market liquidity; market depth; market tightness; market resiliency; GFC; global financial crisis; Polish stock market. File-URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=102513 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:9:y:2019:i:4:p:308-326